The NBA season is in full swing, and that means loaded DFS slates for the weekends. It’s time for weekly Sunday picks. I’ll give you a stud play, a value play and a player to fade for each position so you can piece together your ideal lineup.
For Sunday, Dec. 14, we will be using the NBA $100K Fadeaway [$20K to 1st] DFS pool. Now, let’s dig into the picks!
Point Guard
Stud: Ryan Rollins (MIL), $7,700
Ryan Rollins has been a revelation for the Milwaukee Bucks this season. His defense has always been there, but the giant offensive leap has been a welcome surprise. Rollins has also been remarkably consistent; he’s put up at least 26 DFS points in 12 straight games. It’s not for a lack of upside either, as he’s had five games with 40+ points in that span. Against a Brooklyn team that struggles to defend and take care of the ball offensively, the boom potential is considerable here.
Value: Jeremiah Fears (NOP), $5,900
Jeremiah Fears is one of the best cases of nominative determinism in recent memory. He truly plays with no fear. New Orleans’ point guard loves to attack the paint and has limitless confidence in his shot. That’ll play well against a Chicago Bulls team that is rapidly collapsing. This game will have pace, and I expect Fears to capitalize on the transition chances here. He’s a great play in the guard spot, but is worth a start if you want to invest elsewhere.
Fade: Russell Westbrook (SAC), $8,200
Russell Westbrook may be the only thing going well for the Sacramento Kings right now. Signed late in the offseason to a veteran’s minimum deal, he’s been their most important player this season, putting up huge stat lines as usual. But this Minnesota defense has the defenders to contain him. He does have boom potential, but as the third-highest-priced PG on the board, there’s too much risk to stomach here.
Shooting Guard
Stud: Coby White (CHI), $7,000
Playing a guard against the New Orleans Pelicans is never a bad idea. They’re dead last in the NBA in DFS points allowed to guards. Coby White knows this well; in their last matchup, White put up 24 points, five rebounds and six assists for a total of 40.2 fantasy points. I’m expecting a similar performance in a pacy affair.
Value: Tre Jones (CHI), $5,200
Why not double down here? Tre Jones plays significant minutes off the bench for the Bulls and provides a lot of traditional point guard value. In 28 minutes against the Pels last time out, Jones put up 10 points and 11 assists. His blend of speed and playmaking on the drive is going to cause a lot of problems for New Orleans once again.
Fade: VJ Edgecombe (PHI), $6,100
VJ Edgecombe has been extremely impressive for a rookie. But these Atlanta Hawks are inhaling opposing guards, chewing them up, and spitting them out. With Trae Young out of the lineup, it means more minutes for Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Both are excellent perimeter defenders who will see a lot of time guarding Edgecombe. In their last matchup, despite the 142-130 scoreline, Edgecombe flopped with 16.5 DFS points. I’m not counting on a bounce-back.
Small Forward
Stud: Michael Porter Jr. (BKN), $8,400
After effectively being salary-dumped in the offseason, many assumed Michael Porter Jr. would fade into irrelevance in Brooklyn. That is not the case whatsoever. MPJ looks like an All-Star level player, and is on a heater going into Sunday’s game with the Bucks. Porter Jr. has built a four-game streak with at least 33 points and five made threes while shooting 50% or better from the floor. On top of that, he provides a fair amount of rebounds and steals while his assist numbers continue to climb. In such a small slate, you have to ask yourself the question: can I afford NOT to play MPJ?
Value: Kyle Kuzma (MIL), $5,300
MPJ’s counterpart brings significant value here. With Giannis Antetokounmpo out, Kyle Kuzma is one of the Bucks players who has to step up offensively. While he doesn’t offer a lot as a playmaker, he’s capable of big scoring nights, as we saw against the Celtics in their last game. Against this feeble Nets defense, Kuzma should feast.
Fade: DeMar DeRozan (SAC), $6,600
Facing Jaden McDaniels isn’t fun for anybody. That causes even more problems for a player like DeMar DeRozan. He relies on tough shotmaking to get his buckets, including a lot of mid-post and baseline work. McDaniels’ combination of strength and length makes him the perfect candidate for locking down DeRozan. He doesn’t bring enough upside to justify being the third-most-expensive DFS SF.
Power Forward
Stud: Derik Queen (NOP), $7,400
Derik Queen is the shining light from the darkness that is the New Orleans Pelicans. He looks like the next great playmaking big man and had a true breakout against the San Antonio Spurs, putting up 33 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists and three blocks. Chicago’s frontcourt defense is highly suspicious, and I expect Queen to take full advantage, even with Zion Williamson back in the lineup.
Value: Danny Wolf (BKN), $4,200
It’s finally Danny Wolf time in Brooklyn. After receiving sparse playing time to begin the season, he’s starting to enter the good graces of the coaching staff. Playing at least 19 minutes in his last six games (and 25+ in four of those games) has given him a solid floor. The offense tends to run through Wolf when he’s on the court, and in addition to scoring and playmaking, he has a solid rebounding floor. Wolf is the best DFS value on the board in my book.
Fade: Julius Randle (MIN), $8,800
Julius Randle is excellent at leveling up his game without Anthony Edwards. We saw that in Minnesota’s last game, a comeback win over the Warriors. But if there’s one thing the Kings can do, it’s defend physical power forwards. Keegan Murray is one of the most underrated defenders in the league and will see the bulk of the Randle minutes. They rebound well, nerfing some of his value. I’m too nervous about his floor to justify being the second-most expensive power forward on the board.
Center
Stud: Nic Claxton (BKN), $7,100
Nic Claxton’s increased offensive responsibilities have been a boon for the Brooklyn Nets. He’s taking on heavier dribble handoff responsibilities, elevating his value as a scorer and playmaker. He’s had at least 12 points and four assists in five straight games, an unusual run of offensive consistency by his standard. Claxton is usually good for some rebounds and blocks, but this takes him to a new level.
Value: Bobby Portis (MIL), $5,500
Here’s another Buck ready to feast on the Nets. Bobby Portis gets on scoring tears often, and he’s bound to have some good looks against this Nets team. On top of that, he provides a ton of value as a rebounder. There’s little else from a fantasy perspective, but as a strong double-double candidate, he warrants serious consideration.
Fade: Joel Embiid (PHI), $7,500
Ah, Embiid. What do we make of you? He went wild in his last game, dropping 39 points on the Indiana Pacers. But he’s also prone to some bust nights. Which way will the coin flip on Sunday? My money is on a bust. Onyeka Okongwu and Mouhamadou Gueye have given many centers fits this season, and Embiid is not the dominant physical presence he used to be. With a deep center group on the board for this slate, I’m looking elsewhere.
