CHI Health Center gets a fun one. Kansas State comes in with a track-meet profile, living in the high 80s and letting volatility do a lot of the work. Creighton has worn a few early lumps but still looks like the more adult half-court outfit, with a defense that actually strings stops together and a home floor that rarely feels friendly to visiting guards. The market has Creighton -3.5 with a total in the mid-150s, which is really a question about whether structure can mute a heater from P.J. Haggerty and friends.
Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Creighton Blue Jays and the Kansas State Wildcats.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Creighton vs. Kansas State prediction, preview
Kansas State’s offense is absolutely real. The Wildcats are averaging about 86.7 points and giving up 77.2, putting them in top-tier territory on one side and the 200s on the other. They are hitting roughly 49.0% from the field, piling up 19.3 assists, 36.5 rebounds, 4.1 blocks and 6.7 steals per game, and playing at a tempo around 73.3 possessions, which sits in the top fifteen nationally. Haggerty is the sun they orbit: about 24.0 points, 4.7 rebounds and 5.1 assists in just over thirty minutes, while shooting 50.9% from the floor, 41.7% from three and 72.8% at the line. Around him, David Castillo (12.9 points, 47.3% overall, 41.8% from deep), Nate Johnson (12.4 points, 5.6 boards, 51.7% and 43.2% from three) and Abdi Bashir (12.3 points, 46.1% from three) mean four different guys can burn you on any given night. The offensive efficiency sits in the mid-110s per 100 possessions; the defensive side is up over 104, which is where the trouble starts.
Creighton’s stat line looks quieter but steadier. The Bluejays are around 74.4 points scored and 71.4 allowed, shooting about 45.0% from the field and splitting the boards 37.2 to 37.2. They average 16.1 assists, and under Greg McDermott that almost always means the ball is finding the right shooter instead of the loudest one. Last year’s group finished with a +19.4 adjusted efficiency margin and top-thirty numbers on both sides; this version is not as polished, but the blueprint is similar. Multiple guards live in the nine to twelve point band, the spacing is still clean, and their turnover rate sits in a saner range than most of the uptempo teams we have been tempted to back or fade. In a game lined at one and a half possessions, boring competence matters.
Kansas State vs. Creighton pick, best bet
Kansas State’s case is the kind of thing we just promised to respect more. They have four double-figure scorers, all north of 41.7% from three, and just hung 108 with 30 assists when the shots fell in rhythm. When that version of the Wildcats shows up, the number barely matters; Haggerty gets downhill, the others sprint the lanes, and suddenly it is a ninety-point rock show. Even if the defense leaks, +3.5 stays live if they win the whistle, get loose in transition and nudge this toward ninety possessions. We do not have any interest in pretending that upside does not exist.
Where I still lean Creighton is in the collision between that upside and the floor we have already seen. The same Kansas State defense that allows 77.2 points and sits north of 104 points per 100 just got carved up by Seton Hall, coughing up sixteen turnovers and shooting 37.1% overall and 20.0% from three in that loss. Those habits tend to travel. Creighton does not have to turn this into a flamethrower game to justify -3.5; it just has to drag tempo down a notch, guard the arc competently, and keep its own offense near that 45.0% baseline. At home, with a cleaner turnover profile and a fan base that lives for this kind of measuring-stick game, that feels more likely than Kansas State landing on its Mississippi Valley State ceiling instead of its Seton Hall median.
So I am not scripting a blowout here, especially after what we learned last night about leaning too hard into separation. I expect real K-State runs and at least one Haggerty burst that shrinks this to a one-possession game. But over forty minutes, I trust Creighton’s possession-by-possession stability more than I trust Kansas State’s volatility.
Blue Jays -3.5, with a projected score of Creighton 79, Kansas State 73.
Best bet: Creighton -3.5 (-110) vs. Kansas State
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
