The NBA Cup Semifinals will tip off tonight, with four teams competing in Las Vegas for the right to advance for the right to become the third-ever NBA Cup Champion.
In the opening matchup, the New York Knicks will face off with the Orlando Magic. These two teams have already built a bit of a rivalry this season. This is already the fourth matchup between these two teams, with some fireworks coming in the previous game. Expect the level of intensity to carry over to this NBA Cup matchup as these two teams battle it out to represent the Eastern Conference.
Then, in the late slate, the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder will face the San Antonio Spurs. Victor Wembanyama will be making his return to the floor after last playing on November 14th. San Antonio has more than stayed afloat without its superstar, but this is a tough challenge against a Thunder team off to a historic start with a 24-1 record on the year.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action on DraftKings Sportsbook. This article will look at my favorite three-point prop bets for each team ahead of the NBA Cup action.
Top 3-Point Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (-148)
The Knicks will only go as far as Jalen Brunson takes them. The Villanova product has continually proven to be up for the challenge and has settled in this season after some early growing pains in the new Mike Brown offense. Brunson is averaging 28.3 points, 6.3 assists, and 3.1 rebounds per game. He is shooting 37.6% from beyond the three-point arc while launching 7.5 perimeter shots per game.
Perimeter looks will not be easy to come by against this Magic defense. Orlando is allowing the fewest three-point attempts per game to opponents this season at 32.0, and they rank 14th in opponent three-point percentage. But Brunson is at his best when creating his own three-point looks off the dribble and in isolation. These opportunities are still sure to be there, especially with the higher stakes of the NBA Cup.
Brunson has attempted at least four three-pointers in every game this season and at least five in all but one game. He has made over 2.5 perimeter shots in 12 of the 22 games overall this season. Brunson has eclipsed this total in just one of the three matchups with the Magic, shooting 1-for-7 from deep in the previous matchup. When the lights shine bright, Brunson tends to be at his best so expect this to be the case tonight. He has made six three-pointers in two of his last three games and expect the Knicks’ star to be ready to connect with at least three perimeter shots tonight.
Desmond Bane Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+126)
The Orlando Magic took the big swing to trade for Desmond Bane this offseason. There were some early growing pains in incorporating him into the offense, and Bane has had some shooting struggles himself. But the clear need for him was to serve a role as a floor spacer in the Magic offense. Orlando shot just 31.8% from beyond the three-point arc last year, which ranked dead last in the NBA, not just last year, but this is the worst mark of any NBA team since the 2015-16 Lakers.
So far this season, the Magic rank 25th in three-point attempts per game and 23rd in three-point percentage. Bane is attempting 5.2 perimeter shots per game and connecting at a 34.9% rate. He has found his stride of late and is coming off a season-high six made three-pointers in the previous game. The TCU product has made over 2.5 three-pointers in seven games this season, including six of the last 14 games played.
Perimeter defense is a weakness of this Knicks team, with them ranking 27th in the league in three-point attempts allowed. They are 16th in opponents’ three-point percentage, with teams shooting 36.4% against them. Bane has made over 2.5 three-pointers in two of the three matchups with New York thus far, shooting 8-for-17 from deep overall. Count on the Magic making it a priority to create perimeter looks for their sniper and for Bane to deliver with over 2.5 made three-pointers again tonight. He has not reached his peak as a shooter on the season, but is inching closer and this is a perfect matchup to continue trending in this direction.
Victor Wembanyama Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (-114)
The San Antonio Spurs have done an excellent job continuing to win games without their star, but the complexion of the team changes in a major way with Victor Wembayama back. After missing the previous 12 games with a calf injury, Wembanyama will be on a minutes restriction tonight. But his impact will surely be felt when he is out there and look for his ability from beyond the three-point arc to play a key role in this.
The 2024-25 All-Star is shooting 34.5% on three-pointers this season, while attempting 4.9 perimeter shots per game. This is a significant step back from the 8.8 three-point attempts he averaged last year. However, it also proves he is plenty capable of scaling up this level of perimeter volume. After not attempting more than six three-pointers in any of the first eight games, Wembanyama attempted seven or more in each of the four games he played before going down with injury.
He has made over 1.5 three-pointers in five of the 12 games this season, including four straight before the calf injury popped up. Oklahoma City has the most dominant defense in the league but is 24th in opponent three-point attempts allowed. Expect Wembanyama to show an increased willingness to let it fly from the perimeter as he gets back to full health. With this being just about the lone weakness in the Thunder’s elite defense, count on this especially being the case. Wemabanyama made over 1.5 three-pointers in 35 of his 46 games played last year and in 41 of his 71 games played as a rookie. Expect his perimeter shot volume to continue creeping up and for him to make at least two three-pointers tonight.
Lu Dort to Record 3+ Made Three-Pointers (+216)
On the other side of the matchup, I am taking the big swing at Lu Dort to connect with 3+ made three-pointers at +216 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The standard three-point prop is set at 1.5 with the over favored at -140 odds. Dort is a defense-first player, with nearly the entirety of his offensive production coming from beyond the arc. On the season, 61.4% of Dort’s scoring has come on three-point makes.
Overall, the 2024-25 All-Defensive Team member is shooting 32.5% from beyond the three-point arc on 5.2 attempts per game. This marks his worst efficiency since his rookie season, with Dort shooting 41.2% from deep last year and 39.4% in the year prior. Across the first eight games, Dort shot just 21.1% from beyond the arc and made more than one perimeter shot in just one game. Since this point, he is shooting 42.2% from deep and has connected on 3+ made three-pointers in four of these games.
The Spurs’ defensive metrics will begin to creep back to being a high-level unit with Wembanyama back. On the season overall, San Antonio ranks eighth in the league in opponent three-point attempts allowed, but 26th in opponent three-point percentage. With Oklahoma City having so many talented offensive options, count on it being a game plan to sag off Dort and force the ball in his direction. He has proven capable of punishing teams when this is the case in the past and this is how I foresee things playing out. The Thunder have plenty of trust in the scrappy defender who will likely see plenty of minutes as he helps deal with the Spurs’ loaded guard rotation. Count on Dort connecting on at least three made three-pointers for the fifth time in the past nine games tonight.
