There are some great games on the NFL Week 15 slate as the regular season enters its second half. With plenty of ways to get in on the action on DraftKings Sportsbook, this is a look at my best bets for NFL Week 15.
NFL Week 15 Best Bets
Bills -1.5 at Patriots
The Bills and Patriots face off in one of the most exciting games of the NFL season so far. The Bills trail the Patriots by two games in the AFC East, so a win here would get them within a game with three games left to play. In the first matchup between these teams, the Bills turned the ball over three times and set the Patriots up with some easy scoring opportunities. Drake Maye and Josh Allen have been two of the best quarterbacks in the league this season, but Allen has much more experience in these December games with major playoff implications. Allen is coming off one of his best games of the season against the Bengals and simply makes the winning plays when necessary in these late-season games.
The Bills’ offense is one of the league’s best, ranking third in the NFL in offensive EPA/play. The Patriots have a phenomenal passing offense, but struggle to run the ball. Meanwhile, the Bills rank top-seven in the NFL in both offensive EPA/dropback and EPA/rush. By far the weakest part of the Bills team is its rush defense, which ranks 31st in defensive EPA/rush. However, the Patriots’ rush offense, which ranks 30th in offensive EPA/rush, can’t take advantage of that deficiency. In the first matchup, TreVeyon Henderson led New England with just 24 rushing yards. Josh Allen should make the big plays and find a way to win this game.
Six-Point Teaser: Commanders +8.5 & Saints +8.5
The Commanders are taking on the Giants in an NFC East rivalry game between two bad teams. These two teams have combined for five wins on the season, and neither team has won a game since the Giants beat the Eagles on October 9th. It’s hard to trust either team to win by margin, so I will happily tease the Commanders up to 8.5 points. After one game back on the field, Jayden Daniels got reinjured, and Marcus Mariota will be starting again. The way they have both played this season, Mariota is an upgrade over Daniels. In Daniels’ start last week, the Commanders got steamrolled 31-0. In the two previous games, both Mariota starts, the Commanders played well but lost in overtime. The Commanders have a poor pass defense, but the Giants don’t have the weapons to take advantage of that weakness. This should be a tight game, one that the Commanders have a great chance to win outright.
The Saints and Panthers also face off in another NFC divisional battle. The Panthers now sit in first place in the NFC South after the Buccaneers’ loss on Thursday night. However, this is a tough game for Carolina. Bryce Young has not been as good on the road in his career as he has been at home. The Saints have also been playing much better as of late, beating the Buccaneers on the road last week. The Saints also beat the Panthers on the road in the first matchup between these teams, completely shutting down the Carolina offense in that game. New Orleans ranks ninth in the NFL in defensive EPA/rush and can make the Panthers a pass-first offense. Carolina is not nearly the same when Bryce Young is put into obvious passing downs. This should be a tight game in New Orleans between the two NFC South rivals.
Packers -2.5 at Broncos
The Packers and Broncos go to battle in Denver, another one of the biggest games of the NFL season. The Broncos will be close to locking up the division with a win this week. However, with a loss, the door is open for the Chargers to win the AFC West instead. Meanwhile, Green Bay picked up a massive win over the Bears last week to take the NFC North lead. They face the Bears again next week and need to try to keep that divisional lead before making the trip to Chicago. The Broncos have had a great season, but the team has been getting wins by the skin of its teeth. The Broncos have won ten straight games, and only two of those ten wins have come by multiple scores. Seven of those ten wins have come by four points or fewer.
The Packers are playing their best football of the season ahead of this game. Christian Watson has finally risen to the WR1 role that Jordan Love has been craving. Green Bay leads the NFL in offensive EPA/play and ranks second in offensive success rate. The Packers should be able to move the ball against Denver and put points up. The Denver defense is not as dominant as last season’s league-best unit. This season, Denver ranks seventh in defensive EPA/play, rather than first. Micah Parsons ranks third in the NFL in pass rush win rate and should get pressure on Bo Nix. Nix still struggles to create big plays and can struggle when pressured. The Broncos have not faced a team that currently has an above .500 record and had its starting quarterback at the time of the game since the Eagles on October 5th. The Packers should take it to Denver and win this game, covering the short spread as favorites.
