After a couple days of NBA Cup action, the rest of the league is back in action tonight with a seven-game slate on deck. The action tips off at 7 p.m. EST when the Cleveland Cavaliers head to the nation’s capital for a dance with the Washington Wizards. Sure, the standings may imply a lopsided affair, but that doesn’t mean there’s a lack of betting value available as Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley duel against this young core.
Here’s a Cavaliers vs. Wizards prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s game.
Cavaliers vs. Wizards prediction, preview
A quick look at the record for each team may have bettors ready to anticipate a blowout. With Cleveland 14-11 at seventh in the Eastern Conference and Washington a lowly 3-19 at the bottom of the standings, that’s certainly a fair assumption. Both sides should be rested for this one with neither playing since December 6, but the injury report remains somewhat extensive. For the Cavaliers, Jarrett Allen (finger) and Sam Merrill (hand) are still the most important names listed out, while the Wizards won’t have Bilal Coulibaly (oblique), Kris Middleton (knee), or Alex Sarr (adductor). Those are some significant losses, particularly for the latter in what’s already a tough matchup.
Cleveland Cavaliers
It’s clear to see the Cavs have the upper hand here. While underperforming compared to last season, this group still looks like a playoff contender with top-12 rankings on both offense and defense as well as a +3.1 NETRTG, good for 11th in the NBA. The Cavaliers lean toward offense with 118.6 PPG, ninth in the league largely behind an MVP-caliber campaign from Donovan Mitchell — the star averages a career-high 30.5 PPG on the most efficient TS% of his career at 63.8%, also dishing out 5.5 assists per game. While backcourt mate Darius Garland hasn’t looked quite himself while dealing with a toe issue, he did post at least 15 points and four rebounds in three of his last four outings, and the extra rest has likely done him well. The contributions of the starting frontcourt also stand out with Evan Mobley averaging 18.9 PPG with 9.1 rebounds alongside 16.0 PPG from De’Andre Hunter. One more standout? Second-year guard Jaylon Tyson, who averages 13.0 PPG while shooting a staggering 46.7% from three-point range.
Defensively, the Cavaliers do miss Allen’s presence as a big body in the paint. Their numbers are largely hanging in there though, sitting 12th in opponent PPG (115.4) and 12th in rebounding on the year, though they’re 17th in REB%. As for pace, Cleveland ranks ninth in the league.
Washington Wizards
In Washington, playoffs aren’t even a remote consideration in the minds of fans, nor is a Play-In Tournament appearance. Rather, the rebuild continues with growth the focus of the franchise over wins. The Wizards have seen that from some of their young players like Sarr, who won’t play tonight, as well as Kyshawn George. The latter has taken a leap in his second pro season with 15.2 PPG, 5.9 rebounds and 4.8 assists while shooting 47.0% from the field and 45.0% from three — quickly becoming a foundational piece of this roster. Lottery pick Tre Johnson also shows flashes of potential with 11.5 PPG as he displays the shooting ability which made him the No. 6 selection in the NBA Draft. Bub Carrington has regressed from a standout rookie campaign though, and several other key young pieces are out. That leaves plenty of opportunities for veteran CJ McCollum, who posts 18.6 PPG and is making a case to become a trade chip heading into the new year.
Still, this is a pretty bad team. The Wizards are dead last in NETRTG at -15.4, and they rank 15th in PPG (112.4) while allowing the most of any squad (128.3). They do get plenty of possessions at fourth in pace, but being towards the bottom of the league in REB% and TO% aren’t encouraging signs for competitiveness.
Cavaliers vs. Wizards pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Cavaliers as -14.5 favorites on the road tonight with -1100 odds on the Moneyline. The Wizards are +700 underdogs to win outright with the game total set at 242.5. As for betting splits, 87% of straight bets are on Cleveland to win outright while 58% of wagers on the total favor the under.
It’s tough to go into any matchup without your leading scorer, which is exactly what Washington does tonight with Sarr sidelined. The former No. 3 pick is so much more than his 19.1 PPG however, also pacing his team in rebounds (8.6) and blocks (2.0) per contest as a rangy big man who can play inside or switch out to the perimeter. Without he and Coulibaly, the Wizards are down their two top defenders against a standout offense. That doesn’t bode well against an elite talent like Mitchell who can score in a variety of ways while also creating opportunities for his teammates. The star guard should cook this poor defense at all three levels, and Mobley also sees the benefit of a positive matchup against Marvin Bagley III at the big-man spot. That All-Star duo alone may be enough to get the job done, but add in the surrounding talent and Cleveland should roll tonight.
However tempting the 14.5-point spread may be, I’m going a different direction here. The Cavaliers are only 8-17 ATS this season and 7-15 as a favorite, though they comfortably covered with a 148-115 win last time out against the Wizards on November 7. Even going back to last season’s more dominant group, Cleveland only would’ve covered this line in two of the four meetings between these teams. With that in mind, I’d rather play it safer and take over 129.5 points for the Cavs here with those important defensive talents out for their opponent.
Top pick: CLE Cavaliers over 129.5 points (-110)
