After starting the season on fire and looking like one of the best fantasy football picks of the season, Emeka Egbuka ($9,200 for Showdown) has fallen off a cliff. The rookie was the No. 7 scoring skill player for the first five weeks of the season with 21.3 FPTS per game, but since then, Egbuka is averaging just 9.3 FPTS per game in his last eight, making him the 86th-highest scoring skill player since Week 6. During this eight-game span, Egbuka has only scored double-digit FPTS once.
Egbuka’s usage has actually been better during this ugly stretch, handling a 28% target share after seeing a 22% target share in the first five weeks, but his efficiency has been pitiful and he and Baker Mayfield ($10,000) have been on totally different pages. In the first five games of the season, Egbuka averaged a 65.8% catch rate, 2.49 YPPR and he had just three drops on 38 targets. Since then, the receiver is hauling in an embarrassing 40.8% of his targets, he is averaging a lowly 1.33 YPPR and he has five drops on 71 targets. Just in this past Sunday’s pivotal loss to the Saints, Egbuka dropped a wide open touchdown pass that would have tied the game late in the fourth quarter.
One has to wonder if Egbuka is playing through an injury, but nonetheless, something is clearly off with the receiver and his high usage is about to see a massive hit, as both Mike Evans ($9,000, collarbone) and Jalen McMillan ($3,800, neck) are likely to play Thursday vs. the Falcons. Both wideouts have practiced on a limited basis every day this week and both were activated off injured reserve Wednesday, which is a pretty strong indicator that they will suit up.
McMillan has yet to play this season and will likely see limited snaps after the serious neck injury, but Evans should see plenty of work in this must-win for the Buccaneers – after their loss to the Saints last Sunday, Tampa Bay is tied with the Panthers at 7-6 for the top seed in the NFC South. Evans has always been an elite target earner throughout his career and in the three full games he and Egbuka have played together this season, Evans has seen 28 targets compared to 21 for Egbuka.
Chris Godwin ($8,400) also didn’t play in any of these games, but he is now healthy again for Tampa Bay, so Thursday vs. Atlanta will be the first time this season that all three of Evans, Egbuka and Godwin have been active. To make matters worse, this isn’t an easy matchup, as the Falcons are giving up the eighth-fewest yards per pass over the last three weeks (6.8) and in this spot, Egbuka’s prop lines are underwhelming on DraftKings Sportsbook, at 3.5 catches and 46.5 receiving yards.
Egbuka is a shaky WR3/FLEX play this week and while sitting him during the fantasy football playoffs may feel bold, it is the right move, as you very likely have a better option to start over the struggling wideout.
