These are my picks to win every Week 15 NFL game straight-up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier.
You can bet on any of these games on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 15 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Jaguars over Jets
The Jaguars are starting to play their best football late in the season. They have won five of their past six games and now sit in first place in the AFC South. They are a hard team to beat because they run the ball well and defend the run even better. As long as Trevor Lawrence continues his solid play and avoids turnovers, they will be a hard team to beat. Meanwhile, after a decent run of form, the Jets got dominated by the Dolphins last week, showing their frailties still very much exist. At home, the Jaguars should win this one with relative ease.
Seahawks over Colts
The Seahawks are steamrolling their competition as of late. They have won seven of their past eight games, with four of those seven wins coming by at least 22 points. The defense is one of the best in the league, and as long as Sam Darnold isn’t overwhelmed by pressure, he is playing at an extremely high level. Against whichever quarterback the Colts roll out there this week, Seattle should dominate at home.
49ers over Titans
The Titans picked up their second win of the season last week against the Browns. However, this is now a tough game for them on the road against the 49ers. San Francisco is starting to click since getting healthy, now winners of four of its past five games. The Titans did well to beat the Browns, but stopping this offense will be a much tougher task. The 49ers should take care of business at home and keep their playoff hopes going.
Eagles over Raiders
The Eagles are likely still going to win the NFC East, but things are not looking good in Philadelphia. Jalen Hurts is playing bad football, Saquon Barkley has not kept up his remarkable form from last year and the defense is strong, but not able to carry the team to wins as of late. Philadelphia has lost three straight games and needs to find a way to stop the bleeding. Enter, the Las Vegas Raiders. After last week, the Raiders are now tied for the worst record in the NFL. The offense has not been what many hoped for with all of their offseason additions, and the defense is dreadful. The Eagles are in desperate need of a win and should get it here.
Texans over Cardinals
The Texans have the best defense in the NFL, leading the league in defensive EPA/play. Since C.J. Stroud got healthy, the offense is finally catching up to the defense’s level. While it still has some issues, the emergence of Woody Marks has finally given the offense some much-needed balance. With an elite defense and Stroud playing well, this is a scary team to face moving forward. The Cardinals are struggling, meanwhile. Arizona has now lost five straight, and this doesn’t seem like the spot for it to get back on track.
Bears over Browns
The Bears just lost a massive game to the Packers, but they put up a good fight on the road in Green Bay. Despite the loss, that proved there is real quality on this Bears team. They get to host Green Bay in Chicago next week with a chance at revenge, but they need to win this week to keep pace with Green Bay. This should be a comfortable win for Chicago. The Browns don’t have the offense to expose the Bears’ defensive frailties. Also, the Cleveland defense has dropped off a bit, so Chicago should be able to move the ball and get the win.
Medium Confidence
Buccaneers over Falcons
The Buccaneers are desperate for a win to hold off the Panthers in the NFC South race. Luckily, the Falcons have been struggling mightily in recent weeks. Their last two games were a loss to the Jets and a 28-point blowout courtesy of the Seahawks. Their offense has been dreadful under Kirk Cousins. Bijan Robinson is the team’s best weapon, but Tampa Bay has an elite run defense to slow him down. The Buccaneers should take care of business on Thursday night.
Cowboys over Vikings
The Cowboys are very much in the NFC East race with a few weeks to go. Dallas gets to host a struggling Vikings team on Sunday Night Football to stay in that postseason race. The Cowboys’ offense is one of the best in the league, ranking fifth in offensive EPA/play. The defense is also playing much better than it was earlier in the season, and it won’t be too tested by J.J. McCarthy. Dallas should simply outscore Minnesota here and get the win.
Rams over Lions
The Rams are the best team in the NFL so far this season. They are the favorites to win the Super Bowl, Matthew Stafford is playing at an MVP level and the defense is among the league’s best. This is a tough test against a Lions team desperate for a win, but it’s hard to go against the Rams at the moment, especially with them being at home.
Chiefs over Chargers
The Chiefs’ season is on the brink of being over. A loss to a division rival who is also in the AFC playoff race would likely end their season for good. The Chargers are on short rest after playing on Monday night, and Justin Herbert is still dealing with a hand injury. Kansas City should have a great home crowd and tough winter weather conditions for the team from sunny California. In a last-ditch attempt to save their season, the Chiefs should get it done.
Packers over Broncos
The Packers have won four straight games, including one against each of their divisional opponents. They now lead the NFC North and look like one of the best teams in football. This is a tough test going on the road against the Broncos, but I’m backing Green Bay to get it done. The Denver defense is great, but not on the elite level that it was last season. Micah Parsons and the Green Bay defense are just as capable of making disruptive plays. Meanwhile, the Green Bay offense is far superior to Denver’s offense. The Packers rank first in offensive EPA/play and second in offensive success rate, while Denver’s offense ranks 13th and 21st, respectively. Green Bay should get out of Denver with a win thanks to Jordan Love.
Coin-Flip Games
Ravens over Bengals
The Ravens’ season might already be over, but this is their last chance to even attempt to salvage it. They will need to win out and get help to make the playoffs, but it is not out of the realm of possibility. This is a Bengals team that just beat them two weeks ago, but the Ravens should have a better effort this time around. That game was on a short week in Burrow’s return from injury, giving Baltimore little time to properly prepare. This should be a big game for Derrick Henry as he carries his team to a win.
Bills over Patriots
The Bills and Patriots face off in one of the biggest games of the NFL season so far. A win in this spot would likely clinch the division for New England. However, Buffalo could get right back into the AFC East race if it steals a win. The first matchup between these teams was a three-point win by the Patriots. However, the Bills turned the ball over four times in that game, something that is incredibly unlikely to happen again. The Patriots have not really been tested on their recent winning streak, and the Bills could come spoil the party in New England.
Giants over Commanders
The Giants’ schedule has been brutally hard, facing eight potential playoff teams in their last eight games. They played the Eagles twice, the Broncos, the 49ers, the Bears, the Packers, the Lions and the Patriots. Despite that brutal schedule, they have played a lot of those teams tough. This is finally a chance for them to get a win against a struggling Commanders squad. The Commanders just lost 31-0 against a Vikings team that had lost 26-0 themselves the week prior. They are in a bad place, while Jaxson Dart is trying to build some momentum to end his rookie season and should get the win.
Steelers over Dolphins
The Steelers are somehow still in first place in the AFC North after taking down the Ravens last week. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are on the fringe of the AFC playoff race and would likely be eliminated with a loss this week. The Steelers have much more optimism about the rest of their season and should use that to win this game. There isn’t much to separate these two teams, but the Dolphins having to play their second straight road game in cold weather could be a big factor. For that reason, I’ll back Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers to get the win.
Panthers over Saints
The Saints have been playing solid football the last few weeks, beating the Buccaneers last week. That win gave the Panthers a share of the lead in the NFC South. After its late bye week, Carolina will try to string together a few wins and take the division. This is going to be a tough road game in New Orleans, but after two weeks of rest, Bryce Young should be ready. This is one of the biggest games for the Panthers’ franchise in recent memory. While it will be a tough test, I’ll back the Panthers to get it done.
