The Horizon opener in Indianapolis feels more like a summer run than a conference grinder. Green Bay has lived out of a suitcase against Kansas, Minnesota, Yale and Massachusetts, and now walks into an IU Indy team that treats every night like an AAU showcase. The line is basically a coin flip with Green Bay -1.5 at +100 and a total hanging at 164.5 that screams chaos. This is the kind of game where shot quality, turnovers and conditioning matter more than set plays. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the IUPUI Jaguars and the Green Bay Phoenix.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
IUPUI vs. Green Bay prediction, preview
Green Bay’s profile looks modest on paper but tough when you dig into the schedule. The Phoenix are 4-7, yet their 72.1 points per game come on 45.0% shooting with 30.3% from three and 70.5% at the line. They are only at 10.9 turnovers per night across 11 games despite facing heavy pressure at Kansas, Minnesota and Wright State, and they sit almost even on the glass at 33.0 rebounds against 34.1 allowed. Marcus Hall, C.J. O’Hara, Justin Allen and Preston Ruedinger all live between 10 and 14.5 points per game, giving Doug Gottlieb four different guards who can handle, drive and get to the stripe. That guard depth plus solid ball security is exactly what you want against a defense that tries to manufacture stops with pressure instead of structure.
IU Indy, meanwhile, is a fever dream. The Jaguars average 87.0 points per game, with 44.8% from the field and 31.8% from three, but they give up 94.2 points on 52.0% opponent shooting and 36.8% from deep. Their games are averaging 181.2 total points because Ben Howlett has basically turned them loose: 34.0 rebounds, 20.8 assists and 10.5 steals per game, but also 13.7 turnovers and a brutal -9.2 rebounding margin. Kyler D’Augustino drives everything at 16.2 points on 56.9% shooting and 38.7% from three, with 3.2 assists. Matt Compas, Maguire Mitchell, Kameron Tinsley, Micah Davis and Finley Woodward all add between 8.1 and 12.5 points, and Woodward doubles as a 5.5-rebound, 5.2-assist connector. They want forty minutes of pace, threes and deflections, then hope you crack first.
Green Bay vs. IUPUI pick, best bet
I do not think Green Bay is wired to crack. The Phoenix have already seen elite length and athleticism; IU Indy’s defense will be the softest they have faced, and the numbers back that up. A group that survives Kansas and Minnesota should feast on a back line allowing 52.0% overall and more than 43 rebounds per game, especially with O’Hara finishing at 58.7% from the field and Hall and Ruedinger both comfortable pulling from deep. IU Indy’s best chance to cover is to win the turnover war by a big margin and catch a heater from three, but Green Bay’s turnover rate and patient half-court offense make that less likely than the market implies. In a track meet where both teams get plenty of possessions, I trust the more disciplined defense and the stronger shot diet.
I am willing to lay the short number on the road. Green Bay should live in the paint, live at the line and still get clean catch-and-shoot threes against an undisciplined defense. IU Indy will get its runs, but those bursts usually come paired with blown assignments and free points the other way.
I’m on Green Bay -1.5, with a slight lean to the over 164.5 as the Jaguars drag the tempo into the 170 range.
Call it Green Bay 88, IU Indy 82.
Best bet: Green Bay -1.5 (+100) at IUPUI
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
