The Kings are hosting the Nuggets on Thursday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Denver is favored by 10.5 points and this game carries a total of 239.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Nuggets vs. Kings preview, prediction
Thursday marks the fourth time already this season that the Nuggets and Kings have faced each other. Denver is 2-1 in this season series and all of these games have been decided by single digits. Sacramento won the most recent matchup 128-123 on November 22nd in Denver, which was one of the best wins of the season for the Kings, but it is worth noting that this contest was the second night of a back-to-back set for the Nuggets. Tonight, Denver is the more rested squad, as it hasn’t played since Sunday, whereas Sacramento competed on Monday.
The Nuggets are 17-6 and rank third in net rating this season, behind their offense that leads the league in rating. Denver’s defense has been subpar, ranking 18th in defensive rating, and it’s struggles on that end of the floor will likely continue until Aaron Gordon (hamstring) returns.
As always, Nikola Jokic is in the running for MVP, averaging a triple-double of 29.2 points, 12.3 rebounds and 11.0 assists per game, and Jamal Murray is having a career season, averaging 25.0 points and 6.8 assists per game. To complement this duo with Gordon sidelined, Denver has a strong group of role players in Cameron Johnson, Christian Braun, Peyton Watson and Tim Hardaway Jr., that have been excelling in their roles.
As for the Kings, the team is bottom-five in both offensive and defensive rating, resulting in a 6-18 record and the second-worst net rating in the NBA. Sacramento did just recently blow out the Heat in Miami 127-111 this past Saturday, but then the Kings went into Indiana two days later and lost 116-105 to a 6-18 Pacers team. Sacramento has some solid wins on their resume, including that victory over the Nuggets last month, but the Kings have been very inconsistent and when they are bad, they are very bad, with five losses of 20+ points already this season.
With Domantas Sabonis (knee) out, Sacramento is led by a group of aging veterans in DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Russell Westbrook, and a solid all-around youngster in Keegan Murray. LaVine will be out tonight with a thumb injury, which is good news for the Kings, as he has been the team’s most frustrating player. Some nights LaVine will score over 30 points and some nights he is a no-show with single digits.
One thing that has remained consistent about LaVine is his terrible defense, as with him off the floor, Sacramento’s defensive rating is a huge 11.1 points better. Overall, LaVine ranks second-to-last in plus/minus for the team and with him off the court, the Kings’ net rating is at -4.4, which while bad, is far better than their -13.9 rating with LaVine on. Sacramento has played two games without LaVine this season, with an impressive 121-116 win over the Warriors and an embarrassing 133-100 loss to the Hawks. The Kings should be a better team than usual with LaVine out of the equation tonight, but them playing well enough to beat the Nuggets is very unlikely.
Nuggets vs. Kings pick, best bet
The Nuggets should win this matchup, but the Kings being somewhat competitive on their home floor and without LaVine is possible, so backing the Nuggets -10.5 feels risky. A better bet is Denver -3.5 in the first quarter, as these clubs have been polar opposites in the first period this season.
The Nuggets are 16-7 ATS in the first quarter, while the Kings are 9-15. In the first three matchups of the season between these clubs, Denver went 2-1 in the first quarters, with those first quarter wins being by five and nine points.
