NFC South rivals collide on primetime, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Atlanta Falcons for Thursday Night Football at Raymond James Stadium.
The Falcons (4–9) have completely unraveled, losing seven of their last eight games to get booted from playoff contention. The Buccaneers (7–6) have dropped five of their last seven, but remain atop the division and aim to pad their playoff hopes with a home victory before hitting the road for the next two weeks.
That mission starts with star quarterback Baker Mayfield.
Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Tampa Bay enters as a 4.5-point home favorite, while Atlanta sits as a +195 underdog. The game’s total is set at 44.5 points.
Ahead of the TNF matchup, here’s my favorite Baker Mayfield prop bet on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Baker Mayfield Prop Bet for Falcons vs. Buccaneers
Best Bet: Baker Mayfield Under 217.5 Passing Yards (-111)
Dallas hit the jackpot when it struck a deal for George PBaker Mayfield entered the 2025 campaign on the heels of the best season of his career. The former first overall pick trailed only Joe Burrow and Jared Goff for the NFL’s most passing yards with a clean 4,500, while tying Lamar Jackson for the league’s second-most passing touchdowns at 41.
That upward trajectory lifted Mayfield to an MVP-level start in his age-30 season, averaging 257 passing yards through the first six weeks of the season.
Then the wheels fell off in Tampa, and the Buccaneers’ plunge coincided with struggles from their star quarterback. A Week 12, non-shoulder injury exacerbated the cause, with Mayfield throwing for just 316 total yards in two starts since — punctuated by a brutal 122-yard performance against the New Orleans Saints.
Despite Atlanta also falling off a cliff, the Falcons’ defensive backfield has held strong, ranking in the NFL’s top ten for fewest passing yards allowed. In the season opener against Tampa Bay, the Falcons held Mayfield to just 167 yards — albeit with three touchdowns.
Mayfield hasn’t topped 200 yards since Week 10 — let alone 217.5. His recent stretch of play suggests a bounce-back is unlikely, and rebounding against a strong Falcons secondary feels increasingly far-fetched.
