Jadwin gets a sneaky interesting exam-week game: Princeton trying to stop a slide, Merrimack arriving with real confidence and an identity. Princeton has dropped nine of twelve but is 3-0 at home, while Merrimack sits 5-6 overall, 2-0 in the MAAC and just 1-4 away from North Andover. The market has nudged toward the Tigers, hanging Princeton around -2.5 with a total near 134.5, a small number that dares you to trust their talent over their record. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Princeton Tigers and the Merrimack Warriors.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Princeton vs. Merrimack prediction, preview
Underneath the record, Princeton’s statistical profile looks more like a struggling high-major than a lost cause. The Tigers have scored 835 points in 12 games, 69.6 per game, on 41.8% shooting from the field and 32.9% from three. They rebound 34.4 times per night and have 164 assists against 153 turnovers, which works out to roughly 13.7 assists and 12.8 giveaways per game. Jackson Hicke has been efficient volume on the wing at 13.3 points and 4.4 rebounds, shooting 48.4% from the floor and 39.6% from deep. Jack Stanton adds 11.4 points and 4.3 boards while hitting 33 of 85 threes, 38.8%, and 94.7% at the line. Malik Abdullahi quietly anchors the interior at 6.9 points and 5.6 rebounds, and Princeton’s last ten games still show 69.3 points on 42.6% shooting despite the 2-8 record. The problem is obvious: opponents are sitting at 74.2 points on 46.2% shooting with the same 34.4 rebounds, so Princeton is playing from behind in efficiency almost every night.
Merrimack brings a very different shape to the floor: undersized, disruptive, and willing to live on threes and chaos. Over 11 games, the Warriors have 724 points, 65.8 per game, on 38.3% shooting and 30.6% from three, with 27.7 rebounds per night. Opponents are scoring 74.0 points on 46.4% shooting and grabbing 41.7 boards, so Merrimack is sitting around a -14.0 rebounding gap over the full sample. Kevair Kennedy is their do-everything guard at 14.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.9 steals on 45.9% shooting and 37.5% from three. Ernest Shelton matches the 14.8 points with 2.4 boards and 1.3 steals while hitting 36.2% from three and 80.5% at the line. This group averages 8.0 steals and 4.5 blocks, so they make you uncomfortable, but they also foul and concede clean looks when you get the ball to the second side.
Merrimack vs. Princeton pick, best bet
The clearest counterargument to Princeton -2.5 is that Merrimack’s pressure bothers a Tiger backcourt that has already allowed 92 opponent steals and 39 blocks in 12 games. Princeton has not exactly protected the rim, either, with just 20 blocks all season and opponents living at 74.2 points. If the Warriors’ small-ball lineups hit their typical 8.5 made threes per game and drag this into a turnover game, +2.5 looks very live.
I still lean toward Princeton in this specific setting. Merrimack’s -14.0 rebounding gap runs into a Tigers front line that already owns 413 total boards, 34.4 per game, and can play through Abdullahi and Hicke instead of dribbling into traps. Princeton’s shooting baseline of 41.8% from the field and 32.9% from three should stabilize at home against a defense allowing 46.4% and 33.2% from deep, especially with Stanton and Hicke both above 38% from beyond the arc. Merrimack’s 22.7 rebounds per game in their last ten underline how fragile they are on the glass when shots stop falling.
I’ll lay the short number and trust Princeton’s size, home shooting, and foul-line volume to finally cash some of the possessions their schedule has been wasting.
Give me Princeton -2.5 with a projected score around Princeton 71, Merrimack 63.
Best bet: Princeton -2.5 (-110) vs. Merrimack
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