With the fantasy football playoffs upon us, every lineup decision is under scrutiny. If you own either of the Washington Commanders’ top two running backs, chances are you’re taking a close look at them yourself. I’m here to help you decide whether or not to start Chris Rodriguez and Jacory Croskey-Merritt this week against the New York Giants.
Analysis
It hasn’t been a banner year for these two. Both have had their moments, but Washington’s offensive injuries have kept everyone in flux. Jayden Daniels’ absence looms large over everything; he not only boosts the outlook of the pass catchers, but he also improves the outlook of the running backs by using his own legs. Daniels will continue to sit on the sidelines this week, putting Marcus Mariota under center once again.
But when you play the New York Giants defense, some concerns are set aside. The G-Men rank 31st in opponent rush yards and dead last in opponent yards per carry, giving up 5.8 yards a pop. It’s a brutal indictment of the defensive front they invested so heavily in through the draft. That was on display in Week 1 against these same Commanders, when Croskey-Merritt took 10 carries for 82 yards and a touchdown.
Things have changed, however. Mariota is no slouch as a backup, but he puts a hard ceiling on the running game. This has hit Croskey-Merritt the hardest; the explosive rookie has not rushed for 40 yards since Week 6 against the Bears. Meanwhile, Rodriguez has slowly taken over the backfield. He’s rushed for at least 40 in four of their last five games while becoming the go-to goal-line back.
This change is evident in the snap counts. Over the past three weeks, Rodriguez has averaged a 42.6% snap share while Croskey-Merritt is down to a 19.6% snap share. The carries are 36-20 in Rodriguez’s favor over that span, with neither back involved in the passing game to any meaningful degree.
So, what do we make of these two in Week 15?
The Verdict
If you have to start one, I’d go with Rodriguez. He doesn’t have the highest yardage upside, but he’s seemingly locked in to goal-line duties against an abysmal defense. The carries will be there as the game script should favor the Commanders for some stretches. Whether it’s effectiveness, pass protection, or wavering faith in a rookie, Croskey-Merritt is seemingly on the outs for this season. I would not trust him in any format.
