It is a full slate of college basketball tonight as the CBB season hits its full stride. The opening games, in which teams have felt each other out, has begun to pass, and a true hierarchy is beginning to be established. Tipping off in the later portion of tonight’s college basketball action, the Fresno State Bulldogs will face off with the California State University, Northridge (CSUN) Bulldogs.
Looking at the odds, Fresno State enters as a narrow 1.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook while CSUN holds -102 odds in the moneyline. The game total is set at 160.5.
Fresno State vs. CSUN preview
Fresno State is off to a 6-4 start to the season, but is looking to bounce back from back-to-back losses for the first time this year. Their victories have come against Fresno Pacific, Long Beach State, Utah Valley, Stephen F. Austin, New Orleans, and Pepperdine. The Bulldogs have come up short at the hands of South Carolina Upstate, UC San Diego, Cal State Bakersfield, and Arkansas. Fresno State is 5-4 against the spread, and the under has cashed in five of their nine games.
Jake Heidbreder headlines the production for Fresno State, playing a Mountain West Conference-leading 36.3 minutes per game and adding 18.8 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game. Zaon Collins is the only other player averaging in double figures with 13.8 points and a team-high 5.3 assists per game. Wilson Jacques is the team’s leading rebounder at 7.1 rebounds and 6.6 points per game, while DeShawn Gory also plays a notable role.
As a team, Fresno State is producing 75.4 points per game, which ranks 230th among D1 teams. They rank 263rd in offensive rating and have struggled to shoot the ball, connecting on just 46.4% of their field goal attempts and 29.7% of the attempts from beyond the three-point arc, which ranks 315th. Defensively, opponents are scoring 69.7 points per game against the Bulldogs, which ranks 106th. They are posting the 79th-best defensive rating, rank 140th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and teams are shooting the 10th-worst three-point percentage against them.
The California State University, Northridge Bulldogs are 4-5 on the season, with their four wins coming against Nobel, North Dakota, Troy, and Cal State Bakersfield. They have fallen short against Northern Iowa, North Dakota State, Idaho, Idaho State, and UC Irvine. CSUN is 4-5 against the spread while the over has cashed in five of the nine matchups.
Larry Hughes Jr. leads the team in scoring with 17.7 points per game and is shooting 47.1% from beyond the three-point arc on 7.6 perimeter shots per contest. Josh O’Garro leads the Big West Conference with 9.8 rebounds per game, along with 13.1 points, while Josiah Davis leads the conference with 6.1 assists, along with his 12.9 points. Mahmoud Fofana, Aleksander Szymczyk, Davius Loury, and Jordan Brinson round out most of their notable depth.
CSUN is averaging 75.9 points per game, which ranks 222nd in scoring, and are posting the 312th ranked offensive rating. They are shooting just 41.7% from the floor as a team and 29.6% from beyond the three-point arc, with both these numbers ranking in the bottom 50 of college basketball. The Matadors have not shined defensively either, with opponents scoring 79.4 points per game against them. This ranks 303rd among D1 programs, and they are posting the 234th-ranked defensive rating. They are also giving up the fourth-most three-point attempts per match-up.
Fresno State vs. CSUN pick, best bet
Neither of these teams is exactly the gold standard for college basketball at the moment. My lean would be toward Fresno State getting the outright victory on the road by over the 1.5-point spread. Jake Heidbreder is the best pure scorer in this matchup, and I find a bit more reason for belief in the results the Bulldogs have put on tape to this point.
But I am backing the game total to finish under the 160.5 scoring margin in this matchup. Both these teams like to run-and-gun and have some defensive concerns, but this does not make up for the fact that each struggles offensively as well. Cal State University Northridge has finished with 68 points or fewer in four games this year, and Fresno State is coming off a 58-point outing against Arkansas.
It feels ambitious to believe either one of these teams will comfortably crack 80 points. I do not subscribe to the belief that more opportunities means better looks, even though both sides push this belief. Fresno State also has shown some promising defensive flashes that should have some success in this matchup. Both teams lean on volume over efficiency as their tactic of attack, but neither has shown enough shooting to consistency to believe. The under has cashed in 10 of their combined 18 games thus far. Don’t expect a quick fix to the shooting problems for either side and for the 160.5 total to be a bit too ambitious for this pair of teams to reach.
