The Patriots are returning from their bye with a huge divisional matchup against the Bills on Sunday afternoon of Week 15, and both TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson have fantasy football potential as they share work in the backfield. What will the committee look like as the Pats make their push to the playoffs?
Let’s dive in and take a look at how the two backs have shared time in the last few weeks and which one makes sense for your fantasy lineups moving forward.
The Return of Rhamondre
Rhamondre Stevenson missed three weeks from Week 9 to Week 11, and while he was out TreVeyon Henderson broke through for massive performances. Stevenson was back in a reduced role in Week 12, playing 31% of snaps against the Bengals. He only managed five rushing yards on six carries, though, and caught one pass for five yards. After that week, it looked like he would be a complementary back behind Henderson, with potentially some touchdown-reliant upside, but not much value overall.
Then, in Week 13 against the Giants, Stevenson played 58% of snaps, compared to just 49% for Henderson. The veteran racked up 40 rushing yards on his 12 carries and added 40 receiving yards on three catches, as well.
The coaching staff has been extremely loyal to Stevenson (or stuck on him, depending on your perspective). Despite early-season fumble issues and some low yards-per-carry production, the team continues to give him work between the tackles and especially near the goal line. He will probably be in at least a 50/50 split the rest of the way barring injury or recurring fumble issues.
TreVeyon Time?
In three games without Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson showed an extremely high ceiling. He had over 30 fantasy points in monster games against the Buccaneers and Jets in back-to-back weeks.
He seemed to have control of the job in Week 12. He had 66 yards on 18 carries and added three catches for 15 yards against the Bengals, still managing 11 fantasy points without a touchdown.
Against the Giants, he still had more rushing yards (67) than Henderson and the same amount of catches, even though he only had 19 receiving yards. He again posted over 11 fantasy points without finding the end zone, but he played under 50% of snaps, which is a definite limiting factor for his value.
Henderson has made the most of his opportunities, but his opportunities have been reduced with Rhamondre Stevenson available, which takes away the rookie’s super-high ceiling and also makes him much higher risk in fantasy.
The Remaining Schedule
Whichever back gets work (or both) will have lots of potential in the fantasy football playoffs since the Patriots face the Bills, Ravens, Jets and Dolphins in one of the most tantalizing schedules for running backs of any team in the NFL. All four of those opponents rank in the favorable half of the league in running back matchups.
The Bottom Line
The Bills have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs this season, so both Stevenson and Henderson have potential this week, even if they’re sharing time. Henderson is more of a “home run” threat and is typically more involved as a receiver, so he would be my slightly preferred option. I see him as a low-end RB2 this week, with Stevenson a more touchdown-dependent FLEX play in season-long leagues.
In single-week DFS contests on DraftKings, headlined by the NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st], Stevenson is more affordable at $5,100 and is a very solid value play if he gets back into the end zone. If the Patriots play from ahead, he’ll likely get slightly more than half the snaps, like he did against the Giants. If the Patriots play from behind and are forced to go pass-heavy, Henderson would likely get more work, and he has shown a high enough ceiling to be worth a look at $6,100, even though Stevenson’s involvement keeps him from being a “safe” play at that salary. Henderson is best used in GPP lineups, where his high ceiling is worth the risk.
