The Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1) and Indiana Hoosiers (7-2) are set to face off Tuesday night, going head-to-head in Bloomington. The Big Ten showdown will tip off at 8:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
The Hoosiers are 14.5-point favorites at home with -1350 moneyline odds, and the total has been set at 152.5 points. Here is a preview of the early conference matchup featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Penn State vs. Indiana Preview
Penn State Preview
The Nittany Lions have skated by with single-digit victories over not just mid-major teams, but low-major squads as well. They beat Fairfield by eight, Navy by nine, Harvard by four and Boston University by nine, plus Campbell by 11 and La Salle by 14. While Penn State has mixed in blowout wins against New Haven and Sacred Heart, it lost 77-65 to the only high-major opponent on its schedule thus far — Providence.
Kayden Mingo is the Nittany Lions’ leading scorer at 15 points per game. The freshman is also averaging a team-high 4.2 assists per game and the third-most boards at 4.0 rebounds per game. Croatian 7-footer Ivan Juric has thrived since replacing Slovenian forward Saša Ciani in the starting lineup, putting up 10.6 points per game. Turkish forward Melih Tunca and Cincinnati transfer Josh Reed are averaging 12.8 and 10.6 points per game on the wing, respectively. Freddie Dilione V has been an elite bench spark plug, scoring 13.2 points per game on .484/.379/.909 shooting splits.
Although Penn State ranks No. 318 in three-point attempts per game, its 37.6% shooting percentage from long range is good for No. 42. Tunca, Juric, Dominick Stewart and Eli Rice are all shooting 44.4% or better from deep. From the field as a whole, the team’s 50.8% mark ranks No. 27 nationally. The Nittany Lions also average the second-fewest turnovers and commit the fifth-fewest fouls in the country.
Penn State is ranked No. 94 in the updated KenPom ratings, carried mostly by its offense. It ranks No. 64 in adjusted offensive efficiency but only No. 166 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Nittany Lions also rank No. 37 in luck rating, which is fourth-highest among high-major teams.
Indiana Preview
After beating Alabama A&M by 47, the Hoosiers went to Chicago and notched a 100-77 victory over Marquette. Indiana got out to a 7-0 season start, thanks in part to an 86-69 home win against Kansas State. It closed out the opening month by crushing Bethune-Cookman 100-56. That’s where Indiana’s undefeated season ended, right after it ascended to No. 22 in the AP Poll. Minnesota defended its home court and beat the Hoosiers 73-64, while No. 6 Louisville won 87-78 in Indianapolis.
Tucker DeVries, son of coach Darian DeVries, has followed his dad from Drake to West Virginia to Indiana. He is putting up big numbers with his third team in three years, averaging 17.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.0 steal per game while shooting 41.3% from deep and 87.9% from the line. Sam Houston State transfer Lamar Wilkerson and Troy transfer Tayton Conerway — both seniors — are averaging 16 points per game on 37.9% three-point shooting and 11.8 points per game on 71.1% two-point shooting, respectively. Davidson transfer Reed Bailey is putting up 10.3 points and 4.2 rebounds in the starting lineup, while Florida transfer Sam Alexis is averaging 10 points and 5.8 rebounds per game off the bench. DePaul transfer Conor Enright has been the Hoosiers’ primary distributor with 4.6 assists and 3.8 points per game.
Indiana ranks top-90 in field goal percentage, two-point percentage, three-point percentage and free throw percentage, constituting a pretty well-rounded offense. It also ranks No. 14 in assists and No. 25 in limiting turnovers per game, which is the calling card of a traditional senior-led unit with solid fundamentals.
In the latest KenPom ratings, Indiana slots in at No. 28 in terms of opponent-adjusted net efficiency. DeVries’ defense ranks No. 25, far outpacing his 51st-ranked offense. Indiana’s luck rating is also in the bottom half nationally.
Penn State vs. Indiana Pick, Best Bet
Indiana was flying high through November, but December hasn’t treated the Hoosiers quite as kindly. Their two losses came away from home, one on the road and the other at a neutral site, and both were nine-point losses. Getting back to Assembly Hall should work in Indiana’s favor, but it’s hard to ignore the last two results.
While Louisville is No. 15 in the KenPom, Minnesota comes in at No. 112. Even Indiana’s win over Marquette looks far less impressive one month later, since the Golden Eagles are 5-5 and sitting at No. 93 in the KenPom. Penn State is on that same tier and only has one loss on the season. The Nittany Lions didn’t get destroyed in that one loss, either. Between both sides’ refusal to turn the ball over and Penn State’s efficient, slower offense, there isn’t a clear path to the Hoosiers running away with this one.
