The UEFA Champions League group stage is heating up this week. With only a handful of games left, fans and teams alike are doing the math to figure out their path to qualification. Wednesday’s slate of games brings us a match between two squads on the qualification bubble. Bayer Leverkusen and Newcastle would go into the next qualification round as things currently stand, but the margins are razor-thin. This feels like a need-the-points contest for both teams.
Newcastle is a +130 favorite to win and +270 to draw at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Leverkusen is +190 on the Moneyline. Let’s dig into a prediction and pick for this Bayer Leverkusen vs. Newcastle match.
Leverkusen vs. Newcastle prediction, pick
Leverkusen has been one of the most maddening teams in this UCL group stage. The club started its run dropping points by drawing against FC Kobenhavn and PSV Eindhoven, two teams they should have beaten. This was followed by a 7-2 dismantling at the hands of defending UCL champs Paris Saint-Germain. With their backs against the wall, Leverkusen pulled off a 1-0 win over Benfica before pulling a massive 2-0 upset over Man City. Now they’re poised to advance in qualification if they can pull off a couple more wins.
Their back line, led by Edmond Tapsoba, has set the tone. Pulling off consecutive clean sheets in must-win games is an impressive feat. And Tapsoba continues to look like one of the best defenders in Europe.
Newcastle is looking to follow up a dream 2024/25 season with a great showing in the Champions League. So far, so good. They followed a tight 2-1 loss to Barcelona with three straight wins, putting them in a position to make the Round of 16. But a loss in their last match to French side Olympique Marseille has put their status in doubt. Here, they’ll look to turn the tables and move closer to a Round of 16 berth.
If Newcastle are to take care of business, the back line needs to tighten up, and they have to win down the middle. Strong performances from star midfielder Bruno Guimaraes and summer signing Nick Woltemade would go a long way towards the win. Fortunately, the two are cooking right now.
Leverkusen’s potential for greatness is tough to ignore. Newcastle have made a habit of dropping winnable games as well, and have not looked strong in domestic play. Perhaps a moment of magic from Patrik Schick is all Bayer need for the upset win.
