Tuesday night means hockey night, and there’s plenty of action across the NHL this week to enjoy! The Dallas Stars have weathered numerous injuries and have the second-most points of any team in the league, but this matchup against the Central Division-rival Winnipeg Jets brings a difficult test on the road against another likely postseason contender. After meeting in last year’s playoffs and once this season already, there’s some history here. Buckle up!
Here’s a Stars vs. Jets prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s contest.
Stars vs. Jets prediction, preview
The last time these teams faced off was in their respective season openers back on October 9, a matchup that ended in a 5-4 win for Dallas. Since then, much has changed. The Stars took some time to truly adjust to head coach Glen Gulutzan’s system in the early weeks, but they’ve since become one of the NHL’s most dominant teams with a .750 points percentage and goal differential of 28, both good for second-best in the league. The stars average the fourth-most goals per game at 3.40 thanks to four PPG producers in Mikko Rantanen (39), Jason Robertson (38), Wyatt Johnston (34) and Roope Hintz (25). However, defenseman Miro Heiskanen also has 26 points in 30 games as one of the league’s premier play drivers at the position. The Stars’ power play ranks third-best at 31.6%, but they’re not just an offensive team. They allow the fourth-fewest goals per game at 2.50 along with a much-improved penalty kill sitting 10th at 82.1%. This is a dominant unit at both ends that finds a way to win even if they go down early.
The Jets held similar playoff aspirations entering the season and seemed on track to achieve that goal through early weeks with one of the league’s best records through the opening month. However, an injury to reigning Hart and Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck has sidelined him since undergoing surgery on November 22. While he retook the ice for the first time in the rehab process just yesterday, Winnipeg rides a 2-6-1 skid without the star into this contest. The Jets have slipped to 16th in both goals allowed and goals for per game with 3.00 on both sides, marking a large shift from the start of the campaign. They’re still seeing elite point-scoring returns from Mark Scheifele (36) and Kyle Connor (35), while Gabriel Vilardi (25) and Josh Morrissey (24) are both near PPG status. The special teams units are also respectable at 21.3% on the power play and 81.3% on the kill. However, consistent defensive play has been the biggest issue in recent outings without Hellebuyck, so the team’s fallen to a goal differential of 0 despite an excellent early run to start the year.
Stars vs. Jets pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Stars as -148 favorites on the Moneyline tonight despite playing on the road. The Jets hold +124 odds to win outright with the total set at 5.5 combined goals. Thus far, 79% of straight wagers favor Dallas while 60% of bets on the total lean toward the under.
Dating back to the start of last season with the playoffs included, the Stars are 6-5-0 against Winnipeg. However, most of those games came with Hellebuyck and Jake Oettinger between the pipes for both sides, neither of whom will play tonight. For Dallas, it’ll be Casey DeSmith (2.16 GAA, .921 SV%) in net. For the Jets, Eric Comrie (3.08 GAA, .898 SV%) likely gets the start.
While backup goaltenders can sometimes prove problematic, the Stars have a legitimate advantage thanks to DeSmith on Tuesday. Among all netminders with at least five starts, he ranks sixth in SV% and seventh in GAA thus far — far above where Comrie’s numbers fall. Dallas is also 8-0-2 in its last 10 matchups with a three-game winning streak, while Winnipeg is just 3-6-1 over the same span. If the goalie battle and recent momentum aren’t enough to convince bettors to favor the road team, perhaps the return of defenseman Thomas Harley from a multi-week absence will also help swing the matchup. He’s a significant two-way threat who only adds more firepower to the second defensive pairing and power-play unit, so Dallas is surely excited to have the star back on the ice in Manitoba tonight.
No pun intended, but the stars have aligned for the visitors to dominate a division opponent tonight. This looks like a regulation victory for the Stars.
