Just two weeks ago, the Baltimore Ravens seemed to have everything they needed in order to make a run towards yet another division title: they had edged past the Pittsburgh Steelers atop the AFC North standings and Lamar Jackson was settling back in after his return from injury. In theory, they were well-placed for a stretch of divisional games — two against the Cincinnati Bengals and one against the Steelers — that could have put the division squarely in their control. The last two weeks could have hardly gone further from the plan.
On Thanksgiving, Baltimore lost handily to a Cincinnati team already mostly eliminated from the postseason, and while the Ravens kept it more competitive against the Steelers yesterday, they were again handed defeat. Across his last five games, Jackson has completed just 55.6% of his passes, averaged under 200 passing yards per game, throwing just two touchdowns and getting intercepted four times — easily the worst run of form that the two-time MVP has ever experienced. The 28-year-old has missed one practice in each of the past four weeks, and questions have once again surfaced about his long-term future given his physical style of play and reliance on his athleticism. At his peak, Jackson could reasonably be considered among the five most talented quarterbacks in league history; over the last five weeks, he’s played like a bottom-five quarterback in the league.
The biggest factor for Jackson is health. Five games isn’t a large enough sample size to assume that he’ll never return to MVP form, but all of his struggles, from his career-worst efficiency as a runner to his career-low on-target percentage and average pocket time, are indicative of a man insufficiently confident in his legs’ ability to generate sufficient power. Baltimore’s offensive line isn’t helping, as it ranks 10th-to-last in pass-blocking grades and has seen Jackson take sacks at the sixth-highest rate, but Jackson has been responsible for his own pressure at a high rate in part because of his ability to extend plays. Ball security has also been a problem, both for Jackson and his supporting cast, and that’s not likely to improve on Sunday in cold Southern Ohio conditions.
Still, it might just be stubbornness, but I’d be hesitant to bench him, especially against such a weak opponent. He returned to fantasy viability against Pittsburgh by virtue of his rushing touchdown, accumulating 22.1 FPTS at DraftKings, and his counting stats would have looked much better had his fourth-quarter touchdown pass to Isaiah Likely not controversially been overturned. Despite the fact that the Bengals held him to 9.5 FPTS on Thanksgiving, their defense is still among the worst in the league by any conceivable metric, and yesterday, Josh Allen amassed 37.8 FPTS in snowy conditions. Even a heavily compromised Jackson is capable of viability on Sunday.
