Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have slipped to 6-6 on the season and have an important Sunday Night Football matchup against the Houston Texans tonight. The postseason path has become much murkier than imagined at this stage of the year. Kansas City holds -145 odds of missing the playoffs outright and +120 odds of qualifying for the postseason on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Chiefs enter as 3.5-point favorites and hold -198 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Texans hold +164 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 41.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action outside of backing a side or total. This article will look at my top Patrick Mahomes prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook ahead of tonight’s Week 14 Sunday Night Football matchup.
Best Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Patrick Mahomes Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-108)
The Kansas City Chiefs need to play with desperation for the remainder of the season to earn a postseason opportunity. Patrick Mahomes has scaled up his willingness as a rusher in past postseasons and needs to play with this same level of intensity, given the context of this year. This has been evident already with Mahomes leaning on his legs at a career-high rate. Expect this to continue, given the team’s struggles to run the ball and the pressure the Texans’ defense will put upon him.
So far this year, Mahomes has rushed the ball 55 times for 348 yards and four touchdowns. He is producing a career-high 29.0 rushing yards per game. The two-time MVP has rushed for as many as 66 yards in a game and tallied over 23.5 rushing yards in eight of the 12 games played. This includes back-to-back weeks entering this matchup.
One of the biggest issues the Chiefs have faced this year has been their inability to protect Mahomes. He is being sacked 2.3 times per game, and this will be a huge concern against an elite Texans defense. Houston is tied for the seventh-most sacks in football and is just two weeks removed from taking down Josh Allen eight times in a game. Mahomes has been forced out of the pocket at a rapid rate all season, and this will especially be the case tonight. Expect Mahomes to attempt to turn these opportunities into positive gains and take off for rushing yards throughout. The 23.5-yard rushing line is plenty manageable, and count on the Chiefs’ star to eclipse this for the third consecutive week and ninth time this season.
Patrick Mahomes Under 240.5 Passing Yards (-112)
The Houston Texans have had some offensive struggles, but their defense has a strong case for the best in the league. They enter this matchup having allowed the fewest points and yards on the season. Looking at their pass defense, Houston ranks fourth in passing yards allowed, second in passing touchdowns conceded and third in net yards per pass attempt. Expect this to cause some issues against the Chiefs’ offensive attack tonight.
Patrick Mahomes has been forced to lean on his arm at a high rate all season, doing everything possible to uplift this Chiefs offense. He is averaging 269.0 passing yards per game and has thrown for over 240.5 passing yards in 10 of the 12 games. But only two quarterbacks have thrown for 235+ yards against the Texans all season. Kansas City has not gotten consistent output from its wide receivers this year, and expect it to struggle to create separation against this high-level defensive secondary.
The Chiefs are capable of winning ugly, and this may need to be the case in this matchup. Mahomes remains the gold standard for quarterback play, but expect the pass rush to be bothersome throughout and for him to have limited passing options to lean on. This prop number is a tad too high from a passing production standpoint, and count on Mahomes to be held below this passing prop. Expect defense to be one of the larger takeaways from this matchup and for it to be a struggle to move the ball throughout.
