Week 14 of the Sunday NFL slate will conclude with an AFC battle between the Houston Texans and the Kansas City Chiefs. Neither of these teams hold their desired postseason outlook, sitting in third place in their respective divisions.
The Texans enter tonight with a 7-5 record and have won four straight games. The Chiefs have slipped to 6-6 on the season, failing to fully get back on the right track this year. Both teams need a victory today and some help to carve their postseason path.
Looking at the odds of this matchup, the Chiefs enter as 3.5-point favorites and hold -198 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Texans hold +164 odds of winning outright, and the game total is set at O/U 41.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 14 Sunday Night Football matchup.
Texans at Chiefs Best Prop Bets
Patrick Mahomes Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-108)
The Chiefs’ rushing game has been inconsistent all season. This in itself has forced Patrick Mahomes to be more proactive in rushing the ball himself. This will be especially the case given the context of Kansas City’s postseason outlook on the season and the desperation with which it must play with. Mahomes has scaled up his rushing workload in past postseasons and must approach things with the same mentality moving forward for the remainder of the year.
So far this season, Mahomes has rushed the ball 55 times for 348 yards and four touchdowns. He is on pace for career-high marks with his legs, averaging a career-best 29.0 rushing yards per game. The three-time Super Bowl Champion has rushed for as many as 66 yards in a game and tallied over 23.5 rushing yards in eight of the 12 games played. This includes back-to-back games entering this matchup.
Kansas City has struggled to protect Mahomes all season, with him being sacked 2.3 times per game. The Texans’ defense is particularly built to capitalize on this, as they are tied for the seventh-most sacks in the league and took down Josh Allen eight times in a game two weeks ago. Mahomes has been forced out of the pocket at a rapid rate all season, and this will once again be the case against this intimidating defensive front. Look for the Chiefs’ star to look to turn these opportunities into positive gains and take off for yards throughout. The 23.5-rushing yard line is plenty manageable, and expect him to surpass this on the ground for the third straight week and ninth time this season.
Jayden Higgins Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-109)
Jayden Higgins has quietly come on strong toward the end of his rookie season. The 34th-overall pick has tallied 32 receptions for 359 receiving yards and four touchdowns. He ranks third on the Texans in receptions and yards while being tied for the most receiving scores. Higgins has had four or more receptions in each of the last four games after only cracking this total twice over the opening eight weeks. This includes a season-high five receptions in two of these matchups.
The Kansas City defense is respectable, ranking seventh in scoring and ninth in yards allowed this year. But it has been vulnerable to opposing slot receivers, where Higgins does most of his damage. Since Week 10, his targets per route have increased from 0.15 to 0.3, his target share has increased by 10.5%, and his yards per route have leaped from 1.09 to 2.15.
Looking at the yardage, Higgins is averaging 29.9 receiving yards per game. He has tallied over 35.5 receiving yards in just four games this season, with each coming over the previous four games. This is a low enough number that Higgins could break free to achieve it in just one catch, but he is averaging 7.1 targets across this stretch. Count on him continuing to be a major part of Houston’s offensive attack and eclipsing this receiving total for the fifth straight week.
Rashee Rice Anytime Touchdown (+120)
The absence of Rashee Rice was greatly felt by Kansas City in the early stages of this season. The Chiefs’ offense has reached new heights since he made his return to the field in Week 7. Across the six games he has played, Rice has tallied 42 receptions for 486 yards and six total touchdowns.
Houston has a legitimate elite defense, but the Chiefs are going to need some path to scoring points. Count on Rice being a huge part of this effort. He has six scores in six games since returning, which leads the Chiefs despite his limited time. Rice’s staggering 17 red-zone targets are tied for the sixth-most in the NFL on the season. This is especially noteworthy considering he has played half the number of games of just about each of the names ahead of him.
The Texans’ defense will provide a challenge, but the trust from Patrick Mahomes is clear. With Rice the top red-zone threat, I am backing the +120 odds of him finding the end zone again. His 27.7% target share ranks 12th in the NFL, so count on Mahomes still looking for him frequently tonight.
