Perhaps the most important game this week is between the Colts and Jaguars. These two teams are tied for the AFC South lead at 8-4. This will be the first of two matchups between the division rivals.
Additionally, the Houston Texans are a game back from both teams, meaning the loser can fall to third place.
Indianapolis is a 1.5-point favorite and -125 on the moneyline, while Jacksonville is +105 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at 47.5 points.
Here are my favorite player props for this Week 14 NFL game between the Colts and Jaguars.
Colts vs. Jaguars Best Prop Bets
Jonathan Taylor under 95.5 rushing yards (-114)
Betting against the NFL’s rushing leader seems a bit risky, but I like the Jaguars’ chances to slow him down. Jacksonville allows the fewest rushing yards and carries to opposing teams this season. It’s also clear that the Colts want to attack through Jonathan Taylor, making the defensive approach simpler.
Still, it’s a challenge to slow Taylor down, but teams have done so in recent weeks. The Colts have lost two straight and three of the last four. Even that one victory was an overtime win against the Falcons — not the most impressive.
In the three losses, Taylor recorded 85 rushing yards vs. the Texans, 58 against the Chiefs and 45 against the Steelers. The OT win vs. the Falcons was another Taylor classic: 244 yards and three touchdowns.
Those performances make taking the under scary, but the Jaguars’ defense ranks as the best against the run this year. The Colts’ offense doesn’t look as sharp in recent weeks, making it easier for Jacksonville to focus on stopping Taylor.
Brenton Strange over 44.5 receiving yards (-110)
The Jaguars had Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr. lining up at wide receiver to start the season, yet neither of them are the headlining act in the pass game. It’s third-year tight end Brenton Strange that’s leading the unit.
Strange was a second round pick in 2023 and had a solid 2024 season, but he increased his production this year. Through five games, he caught 20 of 24 targets for 204 yards, which is roughly half of his 2024 totals. Then, he got hurt and sat out until Week 12, when he returned with a dominant performance.
There’s not much doubt about whether Strange has the talent to be a TE1 in fantasy football. It’s more about him staying healthy. When he’s on the field, he’s the Jaguars’ top target and is catching passes at a 84.8% rate.
Even with Thomas back in the lineup, Strange caught three of four targets for 45 yards and a touchdown (his first of the season). He’s also played in at least 71% of offensive snaps in every game that he’s played fully.
The matchup this week also benefits Strange. The Colts allow the most pass attempts and sixth most passing yards in the league. In fact, Indianapolis has allowed the second most receiving yards to tight ends, and fourth most targets and receptions to the position.