After losing the first three games of the season, the Houston Texans have rattled off four-straight wins and sit at 7-5 for the season, one game back of the AFC South lead. Davis Mills led the Texans to three of those wins, with one over the division-leading Jacksonville Jaguars and an impressive victory over the Buffalo Bills. The defense has been fantastic all season, allowing over 20 points only two times this season. The vibes are positive and CJ Stroud returned to action last week, completing 22-of-35 passes for 276 yards and an interception.
The vibes in Kansas City are not so hot, as the Chiefs have lost three of the last four games and are 6-6 on the season. The Chiefs have only lost six games in a season once during the Patrick Mahomers era — back in 2023 when Kansas City finished with a record of 11-6. Kansas City won their second straight Super Bowl that season.
This game is at home for Kansas City, but it’s going to be tough sledding because Houston possesses one of the best defenses in the league. Their EPA per carry is ninth-lowest and the unit has allowed just four yards per carry and nine rushing touchdowns. Their pass defense is also the best in the league, posting the lowest EPA per dropback. Their 58.4 completion percentage allowed is the third-lowest in the league, and the unit has allowed only 12 passing touchdowns while racking up 12 interceptions. Houston is only 21st in pressure rate but its 34 sacks are tied for the seventh-most.
Kansas City is third in EPA per dropback on offense. Yeah, that Patrick Mahomes guy is still pretty good. Facing Denver a few weeks ago, Mahomes went 29-of-45 for 276 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Those Broncos are posting the third-lowest EPA per dropback on defense. On the ground, the Chiefs are third in EPA per carry while averaging 4.4 yards per carry. Kansas City has scored 13 rushing touchdowns, but much of the rushing prowess has been due to Mahomes scrambling.
On defense, Kansas City has posted the 11th-highest EPA per carry. Opponents are averaging 4.3 yards per carry and have scored 11 rushing touchdowns. The Chiefs’ pass defense has posted the 18th-highest EPA per dropback. The unit has intercepted seven passes while allowing only 13 touchdowns through the air. Kansas City is 16th in pressure rate and its 22 sacks are fifth-fewest.
I’m not going to dig too much into the Houston’s offense because Stroud has missed so many games, but he’s exceeded 250 yards passing only twice this season.
Below are the values that could hopefully help take you to the promised land.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (HOU @ KC)
WR Xavier Hutchinson – Houston Texans ($3,000)
Hutchinson is second on the team with 507 snaps this season. Last week, he garnered 55% of the snaps. He has only 39 targets on the season, though, but gannered five last week. He also has seven red zone looks on the season, tied for the second-most amongst Houston wide receivers.
TE Cade Stover, Houston Texans ($1,600)
Dalton Schultz is the main option at tight end for the Texans, but Stover has seen the playing time steadily increase each week since returning from injury. In his first game back, Stover played 20% of the snaps. In Week 12, that number increased to 34%, and last week, Stover was in on 41% of the snaps. Stover has only received two targets in each of the last two games, but received four red zone opportunities last week on four carries.
TE Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans ($5,400)
Schultz is second on the team with 80 targets on the season. Last week, he caught seven of eight targets for 55 yards. Schultz has only eight red zone opportunities on the season, but he’s finished with double-digit FPTS six times.
