It’s been a season of runs for Philadelphia. The Eagles won the first four games of the season then lost two straight. After notching another four-week win streak, Philadelphia dropped games to Dallas and Chicago. So easy victory in Los Angeles, right? If it were only that easy.
The offense has been, well, offensive. We know the Eagles want to run the ball, and Philadelphia is 26th in pass rate, but the EPA per carry is 11th-lowest, averaging only 4.0 yards per carry. Remember Saquon Barkley? He’s rushed 198 times for 740 yards and four touchdowns. Jalen Hurts has only thrown two interceptions, but only 19 touchdowns and the Eagles have the 14th-highest EPA per dropback. The 112 first downs are the sixth-fewest in the NFL.
The rush defense has been meh, allowing 4.5 yards per carry and 14 touchdowns, but the pass defense has been stout, allowing the 11th-lowest EPA per carry and a 56.6 completion percentage, the lowest in the league. Only 12 passing touchdowns have been allowed while the unit has racked up eight interceptions and 24 sacks. Philadelphia is only 15th in pressure rate.
All that said, Philadelphia is still leading the NFC East with an 8-4 record.
The Chargers are 8-4 as well, but things could have been better if not for a plethora of injuries. Justin Herbert threw for at least 300 yards in two of the first three games. Since then, he’s accomplished the feat just once. The loss of offensive linemen due to injuries have been huge, which have forced the Chargers to dial things back a bit. After getting humbled in Jacksonville prior to the bye, Los Angeles bounced back with a relatively easy win over the Raiders.
Los Angeles is 15th in EPA per dropback with 21 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Herbert has been sacked 40 times, though, the fifth-most. The run game has posted the third-highest EPA per carry, but with only 4.5 yards per carry and have scored only seven times.
On defense, the Chargers have the 14th-lowest EPA per carry but have allowed 4.5 yards per carry and 14 touchdowns. The pass defense has been solid with the 10th-lowest EPA per carry. The unit has allowed only 12 passing touchdown while racking up 11 interceptions and 34 sacks. The completion percentage allowed is 61.3 while the pressure rate is only 19th.
DraftKings Sportsbook has PHI -1.5 over LAC with the total at 41.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Monday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (PHI @ LAC)
Captain’s Picks
Jalen Hurts ($15,900 CP): I’m not expecting many points in this game, as both teams will likely play to their defenses. As a result, give me the guy that has the best floor/ceiling combo due to his rushing prowess, especially with the Tush Push. Hurts has put up double-digit FPTS in every game this season with six over 20 and two over 30 FPTS. Hurts leads the Eagles with 57 red zone opportunities. Barkley is second with 32.
UTIL Plays
Dallas Goedert ($5,400): The Eagles passing game is highly concentrated towards A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, so it makes it difficult to rely on anyone else, especially in a low-volume passing game. That said, Goedert is third on the team with 56 targets and the Chargers have allowed six touchdowns to tight ends, tied for the fourth-most.
Omarion Hampton ($7,800): Hampton hasn’t played since Week 5, but he’s expected to be back for this one. Prior to succumbing to injury Hampton had two games with 24.9 and 30.5 FPTS. While he did damage on the ground, Hampton was also a factor in the passing game, garnering seven, five and six targets in three games before going down. With the injury to Herbert’s left hand and issues on the offensive line, it’s likely that Hampton will be the focal point of the offense.
A.J. Brown ($9,000): It’s been a tumultuous season for Brown with five single-digit FPTS games. The highs have been high, though, as Brown has two games over 30 FPTS. Over the last three games, Brown has garnered 11, 10 and 12 targets. In the two most recent contests, Brown has gone over 100 yards in both while scoring a total of three touchdowns.
Fades
Saquon Barkley ($9,600): Barkley put up 36.4 FPTS in Week 8, so Barkley can still access ceiling games. Unfortunately, that was his only game over 18 FPTS this season with four games in single digits. I have respect for the Chargers defense, so even if Barkley has a good game, I doubt a ceiling game is likely which makes it an easy fade at his price tag.
THE OUTCOME
I think this is a low-scoring game that turns into a battle of the trenches. The Chargers, though, are banged up on the offensive line while we don’t know how Herbert’s surgically-repaired left hand will affect things.
Final Score: Eagles 20, Chargers 13
