Madison Square Garden gets Ole Miss and St. John’s in a December slot that feels like a proof-of-concept for both coaches. Chris Beard walks in at 5–3, carrying a three-game losing streak and an offense that has sagged late in tight games. Rick Pitino counters at 4–3 with a top-25 ranking, a noisy 92-point scoring average and a seven-game skid against SEC opponents that he’s openly sick of mentioning. The line hangs St. John’s -13.5 and dares you to believe this is a runaway. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the St. John’s Red Storm and the Ole Miss Rebels.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
St. John’s vs. Ole Miss prediction, preview
Ole Miss’ profile is quieter but sturdier than the record suggests. They average about 77.5 points and allow 68.6, with roughly 40.8 rebounds per game and a +6.6 edge on the glass. They dish about 17 assists, turn it over only nine times and block more than 5 shots nightly, a rare combination of rim protection and ball security for a team catching this many points. AJ Storr sets the tone at about 13.8 points on roughly 47% from the field and a blistering 52% from three, rolling into his old building with something to prove. Their lead guard adds another 13.8 points with 4.9 assists and about 37.5% from deep, giving Beard two perimeter creators who don’t cough the ball away. Malik Dia hovers around 12.5 points and 5.9 boards as a long, switchable forward who can punish St. John’s on the glass.
St. John’s brings the fireworks and the volatility. The Johnnies are scoring about 92 points per game, with Bryce Hopkins at 16.1 and Zuby Ejiofor at 15.6 and 6.6 boards on nearly 60% shooting. Ian Jackson adds around 12 on 52% from the floor and close to 40% from deep, while Oziyah Sellers drops 11.6 on a wild 48% from three. Dillon Mitchell chips in 11 points and 6.4 rebounds on more than 67% shooting, flying around as the connective tissue. This is a legit offensive machine when it’s humming. But the other column matters for a dog: they allow mid-70s, surrender nearly 8 made threes a night, and sit near the bottom of Division I in defensive rebounding. They win with spurts and shot-making, not with an airtight floor.
Our sustainability lens loves that mismatch. St. John’s efficiency is built on pace and perimeter talent, but their worst traits—defensive glass and enemy threes—are exactly the things that let an underdog hang around. Ole Miss protects the rim, rebounds at a plus margin and almost never hands out live-ball turnovers that turn into Garden avalanches. Storr has real shot-making stretch, and his guard can keep them organized enough to punish second chances when Mitchell and Ejiofor gamble. Beard’s teams historically travel on defense and structure more than on pure shot variance. In a first true road game, the Rebels can wobble, but the spine is set up to bleed the clock, contest everything and make St. John’s earn every trip.
Ole Miss vs. St. John’s pick, best bet
Pitino has had a long break to drill the Johnnies, and the Garden crowd will lean their direction, but he’s also been blunt about needing better toughness and rebounding. That usually means rotations get shorter, possessions get more deliberate and he is less tolerant of early-clock nonsense, all of which quietly favors a double-digit dog. Ole Miss, meanwhile, is desperate to stop the skid and understands that trading haymakers with a team built to run is suicide. Their path is to drag possessions into the half court, live with Hopkins and Sellers making contested jumpers, and trust their size and shot-blocking to erase layups.
There is absolutely a blowout script. If St. John’s starts hot, Ole Miss’ shooters tighten up and the Rebels suddenly turn it over 14 or 15 times instead of 9, the Johnnies can turn this into a 20-point track meet. But the number we are getting already bakes in a lot of that ceiling. To cover -13.5, St. John’s needs sustained separation against a team that defends, rebounds and values the ball. That is not the same as running away from a mid-major on a weeknight.
I would rather bet on Ole Miss’ floor than St. John’s ceiling at this price. Storr’s revenge angle, Beard’s defensive structure and the Rebels’ rim protection all point toward a game that lives in the competitive band deep into the second half. St. John’s can still win behind spurts and crowd noise, but Ole Miss has too many ways to keep this inside two full possessions past double digits.
Final score: St. John’s 82, Ole Miss 73. We’re grabbing the +13.5 with the travelin’ Rebels.
Best bet: Ole Miss +13.5 (-110) vs. St. John’s
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