The second bout of the UFC 323 PPV Main Card features a Light heavyweight contest between Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov. Blachowicz, 42, the former UFC 205-pound Champion, has suffered two straight fights and is looking for his first victory since May 2022. Guskov is nine years younger and has won four consecutive fights by a finish in the first two rounds. He is also already 2-0 in 2025.
Check out my best bet for Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov at UFC 323.
Jan Blachowicz Moneyline (-122)
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Blachowicz is a -122 favorite with Guskov being a +102 underdog. This fight is -200 not to go the distance and +150 to end via the judges’ scorecards.
Even though Blachowicz is coming off multiple losses, he still enters this bout with a versatile skill set and remains a good fighter at 42. Blachowicz is still ranked No. 5 in the Light Heavyweight division, with Guskov being No. 11. Two of Blachowicz’s last three losses were to the current champion Alex Pereira and former title holder Glover Teixeira. This is a big step up in competition for Guskov.
Guskov recently beat Nikita Krylov in July, but hasn’t faced a former champion like Blachowicz before. In this fight, Guskov is one inch taller, but Blachowicz has the reach advantage (78″ vs. 76″). Guskov is a slightly better striker on the feet, averaging more significant strikes per minute (4.17 vs. 3.44) and being more accurate (55″ vs. 49″). The former champion’s most significant advantage comes on the ground as he lands 1.03 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 48 percent rate. Blachowicz is at his best when he is effective on the feet before controlling the bout on the ground. Since he has lost two in a row, Blachowicz is in a must-win situation and should bring his A game in this contest.
