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Prediction, pick for Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott at UFC 323

Prediction, pick for Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott at UFC 323

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By: Cooper Albers

Former double-champion and No. 1-ranked bantamweight Henry Cejudo returns to the Octagon on Saturday night, taking on burgeoning contender Payton Talbott at UFC 323 in Las Vegas. 

Cejudo (16–5) is 0–3 in a disjointed comeback run following his abrupt “retirement” in 2020. Talbott (10–1) rebounded from his first professional loss with a June victory and now looks to reestablish himself as one of the division’s most promising prospects. 

Talbott enters as a -250 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Cejudo sits as a +205 underdog. The total is set at 2.5 rounds.

Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott Preview

Cejudo, 38, rode off into the sunset with a surprise retirement after beating Dominick Cruz to become a two-division champ in 2020. But like many blockbuster movie franchises, he returned three years later for a reboot that hasn’t come close to matching the original.

He lost to then-champion Aljamain Sterling in his comeback, fell to current champ Merab Dvalishvili nine months later, and dropped his third straight to Song Yadong this February after a year-long layoff. While Triple C maintains his Olympic-level wrestling, it’s clear that his striking and overall explosiveness have slowed with age. 

Talbott, 27, rebounded from his first professional loss with an impressive unanimous decision over Felipe Lima in June — quickly returning to form after a brief stint on fraud watch.

An elite striker, Talbott boasts an 80% finish rate with seven knockouts and a submission. His surgical precision was on full display in June of 2024, when he flattened Yanis Ghemmouri in just 19 seconds — the third-fastest finish in bantamweight history.

Talbott is a sound grappler off his back, and he employs a formidable 5-foot-10 frame and 70-inch reach to effectively manage distance and maintain a striking edge at range. This should be especially effective against Cejudo, who stands just 5-foot-4 with a 64-inch wingspan.

Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott Pick, Best Bet

This matchup captures the contrast between the division’s exciting future and its increasingly distant past. Cejudo was a great champion — five years ago. He hasn’t recaptured that magic in any of his last three fights, and nothing so far suggests that he’s headed for a turnaround against Talbott.

Talbott was once one of the most exciting prospects on UFC’s radar, even drawing the all-too-early chatter about a potential title fight with then-champion Sean O’Malley. While he’s back in the win column, he’s not out of the woods yet, and he’ll need more than a decision over a past-his-prime Cejudo to fully restore his reputation. While a decision against the former gold medalist seems unlikely, count on Talbott to make a statement against the former champion on Saturday night.

Best Bet: Payton Talbott To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (+275)

Cooper Albers profile photo

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.