It is a loaded Saturday of college basketball with plenty of notable matchups taking place. Near the top of the list will be a noon tip-off between the top-ranked Purdue Boilermakers and the 10th-ranked Iowa State Cyclones.
Both these teams entered the season as expected National Championship threats and have looked the part to this point. They enter with a combined 16-0 record on the season, meaning one of these undefeated streaks is destined to come to an end. These two programs have matched up five times in their history. Purdue has won three of these matchups, including the most recent game in 2017.
Looking at the odds, Purdue enters as a 5.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the game total set at 150.5
Iowa State vs. Purdue prediction, preview
The Iowa State Cyclones are off to an 8-0 record to start the season. They have picked up victories over Fairleigh Dickinson, Grambling State, Mississippi State, Stonehill, St. John’s, Creighton, Syracuse, and Alcorn State. The Cyclones are 6-1-1 against the spread, and the over has hit in six of their eight matchups.
Iowa State ranks 21st in the league in scoring at 91.1 points per game. They rank 12th in the country in offensive rating, 10th in team field goal percentage, and 53rd in three-point percentage. Defensively, they are holding opponents to 65.0 points per game, which ranks 35th across college basketball. They rank 26th in defensive rating and are producing the 12th-most steals per game. Iowa State leads all of college basketball with an average margin of victory of +30.9 points. The 83-82 victory over St. John’s is the only game that has finished with a margin slimmer than 16 points this season.
52.1% of the minutes played and 47.2% of the scoring production from last year’s Iowa State team returned. This Cyclones team fell in the second round of the NCAA Tournament to Ole Miss despite entering as a 3-seed.
Tamin Lipsey headlines the scoring production with 18.4 points, 5.2 assists, 3.6 rebounds, and 3.2 steals per game. He has been sidelined with a groin injury since the victory over St. John’s, but is back at practice and hoping to give it a go in this matchup. Joshua Jefferson adds 17.6 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 5.0 assists, while Milan Momcilovic is the team’s best three-point shooter at 49.1% from beyond the arc. Momcilovic adds 16.9 points per game, while Killyan Toure is the lone other player averaging in double figures at 11.7 points per game.
Purdue also enters with an undefeated 8-0 start to the season. Their victories have come against Evansville, Oakland, Alabama, Akron, Memphis, Texas Tech, Eastern Illinois, and Rutgers. The Boilermakers are 4-4 against the spread, and the under has cashed in five of their eight games.
Matt Painter’s squad opened the season at the top spot in the AP Poll and have done nothing to remove themselves from this slot yet. They rank 40th in the country in scoring at 88.6 points and are posting the third-best offensive rating. Purdue is shooting 41.8% from beyond the three-point arc, which is the seventh-best rate in college basketball, and the 25th-best field goal percentage overall. Defensively, opponents are scoring 67.8 points per game against them, which ranks 81st. They rank 118th in defensive rating.
This is also an experienced squad with 69.6% of the minutes played and 79.6% of the scoring production from last year’s Purdue team returning. The Boilermakers lost on a buzzer-beater against Houston in the Sweet 16 of last year’s NCAA Tournament.
Fletcher Loyer headlines the scoring for the Boilermakers at 15.6 points per game and is connecting on 49.1% of his three-point attempts. Trey Kaufman-Renn provides balance in the front court, with 15.5 points and a Big Ten-leading 11.0 rebounds per game. Braden Smith adds 13.4 points per game and is shooting 41.0% from beyond the three-point arc, while Oscar Cluff adds 11.3 points and 9.3 rebounds per game.
Iowa State vs. Purdue pick, best bet
This will be an intriguing measuring stick matchup for two of the top teams in college basketball, who each enter with plenty of experience on their side. This is a rarity in today’s college basketball landscape. While Iowa State has been dominant against the spread with a massive margin of victory thus far, I am backing Purdue to win and cover by the 5.5-point spread.
Purdue is a bit more battle-tested with ranked wins over Alabama and Texas Tech already this season. Iowa State’s CBB-best +30.9 margin of victory is impressive, but Purdue is not far behind with the 13th-best rate at +21.0 points per contest. All eight of their victories have been by more than the 5.5-point spread.
Ultimately, expect three-point shooting the be the biggest difference and the pathway to a Purdue victory. The Boilermakers are shooting 41.8% collectively from beyond the arc, with six players shooting 41.0% or better from downtown. Iowa State ranks 204th in opponents’ three-point attempts allowed and 210th in opponents’ three-point percentage so far this season. They are also 230th in three-point volume themselves, and there should be a notable gap in production from this area of the floor between these two teams.
Expect Iowa State to lean on its defense to hang around in the early parts of this matchup. But as the game extends, count on Purdue possessing a level of offensive firepower that they cannot stick with. Expect there to be a few backbreaking three-pointers that swing momentum and for Purdue to build out a lead of well beyond the 5.5-point spread in the late stages of the game.
