There are some great games on the NFL Week 14 slate as the regular season enters its second half. With plenty of ways to get in on the action on DraftKings Sportsbook, this is a look at my best bets for NFL Week 14.
NFL Week 14 Best Bets
Falcons +7 vs. Seahawks
It has been a disappointing season for the Falcons. A campaign that started bright with flashes of excellence from Michael Penix Jr., Bijan Robinson and Drake London has gone down the drain. Injuries to Penix and London haven’t helped the efforts, but the team has just found ways to lose games over and over again. Kirk Cousins was dreadful when he first stepped in for Penix, but he has since gotten into more of a groove and is looking suitable. Bijan Robinson also continues to be one of the most electric players in the sport. After losing to the Jets outright, this is likely the bottom of the market on the Falcons, making it a good time to buy on them.
While it’s the bottom of the market for the Falcons, it’s the top of the market for the Seahawks. They are coming off a trouncing of the Vikings and they have been great all season. However, that game against Minnesota could have easily been 3-3 at halftime, but Max Brosmer threw one of the worst pick-sixes in NFL history, making it 10-0 Seattle at the half before the Seahawks looked back. Sam Darnold has had a great season, but he still gets bothered by pressure. The Falcons have a couple of great edge rushers and have been able to apply pressure all season. There’s a chance the Falcons find a way to lose again, but at home, they should be able to keep this game within a touchdown.
Six-Point Teaser: Buccaneers -2.5 & Jets +8.5
The Buccaneers are the healthiest that they have been all season. Baker Mayfield is getting healthier after getting banged up earlier this season, Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving have returned to the field and are getting back up to game speed and even Mike Evans is back on the practice field, although he won’t play this weekend. At home, Tampa Bay should score against a New Orleans defense that ranks 22nd in the NFL in defensive EPA/dropback. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay should shut down the New Orleans run game, as it ranks third in the league in defensive EPA/rush. Making Tyler Shough play from obvious passing downs is how to beat this Saints team. The Buccaneers should win this one by at least a field goal.
The Jets have been playing tough football over the past few weeks. Over their last seven games, they lost to the Broncos by two points, lost to the Panthers by seven, played tough against the Patriots and Ravens and also beat the Bengals, Browns and Falcons. Against teams with a record below .500, they are 3-0 over that stretch. Now, they host the 5-7 Dolphins in cold winter conditions in New Jersey. Tua Tagovailoa has traditionally struggled in cold weather and this Jets defense is tough, ranking eighth in the league in success rate. They should make things uncomfortable for Tagovailoa and keep this game low-scoring. Tyrod Taylor has been an upgrade at quarterback, and he should score enough to make this a one-possession game in either direction.
Steelers +6 at Ravens
The Steelers and Ravens face off on Sunday in one of the best rivalries the NFL has to offer. The Ravens were surging after the return of Lamar Jackson, but over their last three games, they beat the Browns by a touchdown, got outgained by the Jets and lost to the Bengals by 18 points. Jackson doesn’t have his usual mobility and seems like he is still not fully healthy. The Ravens are also lacking at the skill positions. Unless Zay Flowers has a monster game, they aren’t getting much out of their pass catchers. The defense also has some clear flaws, ranking 20th in defensive EPA/play.
The Steelers aren’t playing great either, but they know how to muck up a game and keep it tight. They played a great first half against the Bills last week before two bad turnovers in a row, including one by Mason Rudolph when Aaron Rodgers had to sit out a few plays, which gave the game away. This matchup is simply always close — since 2005, the underdog has covered the spread 71% of the time. When the spread is at least a field goal, the underdog is 23-5-3 (82%) ATS. Mike Tomlin is personally 13-4-2 (76.5%) ATS as an underdog against the Ravens. The Steelers should keep those trends going and keep this game within six points.
