All eyes are on Group D of the 2026 FIFA World Cup after Friday’s draw. The United States, host of the tournament, was hoping for a great draw. That’s precisely what they got. Let’s break down how the group looks and pick a winner.
The Field
Going off the FIFA rankings, the USA is the top team in the group. At 14th overall, they’re in a great position to make some noise in the knockout stages, provided that they can advance. Under new manager Mauricio Pochettino, they’re playing with belief and executing the details. A good run of friendly wins has followed a strong performance in the CONCACAF Gold Cup, where they nearly conquered their demons against Mexico.
Australia has the second-highest FIFA ranking in the group after a great run in the Asian Cup. They’re riding the highest they’ve ridden in a decade and look like one of the power teams in the AFC alongside Japan and South Korea. With a healthy mix of vets and youngsters, it’s a great time for the Aussies to push through into the knockout stages.
Paraguay is the first team on the bubble. They have a young team on the rise, but a knockout stage appearance would qualify as an upset. Since this group doesn’t have a clear powerhouse team, it’s the best draw they could have hoped for. Big upsets are nothing new to them; since last September, Paraguay has pulled off wins over Uruguay, Brazil, and defending World Cup champs Argentina in competitive matches. They have all the reason to believe they can compete with the USA and Australia.
The fourth team in the group will be decided during the second European qualification round. That’s between Turkey, Slovakia, Romania, and Kosovo. Of those four, Turkey would be the most potent threat. They have the most threatening attack in the group, led by Real Madrid wonderkind Arda Güler and long-time Turkish standout Hakan Calhanoglu.
Now that we know the squads, let’s get into the pick.
The Pick
Here’s how the odds look for winning Group D:
As you can see, the USA is a clear favorite, and for good reason. Paraguay has decent odds, and Turkey (the presumed last team in) is tied with Australia. There are reasons to think that an upset could brew, but this is all lining up for Team USA. They’ve got a coach with pedigree, youth and athleticism to mix with experience, and the right draw. I’m backing the red, white, and blue to clean up Group D.
