College football conference championship week has arrived with teams around the country looking to finish the season on the right note. Facing off on Friday night with the Sun Belt title on the line, the Troy Trojans will play the James Madison Dukes.
JMU has climbed to 25th in the AP Poll and will be looking to make its final case for why it deserves to be in the college football playoffs. The Dukes are 11-1 on the season with the lone loss coming against Louisville. Troy enters with an 8-4 record on the year and will look to play spoiler for its conference rival’s CFB playoff chances. While JMU has emerged as the gold standard of the conference with some impressive performances of late, Troy won the Sun Belt championship in 2022 and 2023.
James Madison enters as a 23.5-point favorite and holds -2800 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Troy is a +1300 underdog, with the game total set at 47.5 points.
This article provides a preview of both teams and offers a pick for the Sun Belt conference championship.
Troy vs. JMU prediction, preview
Troy Trojans
Troy finished the season with an 8-4 record and went 6-2 in Sun Belt conference play. The Trojans finished the year strong with back-to-back wins over Georgia State and Southern Miss, which brought them to winning seven of their final nine games. Their four losses came against Clemson, Memphis, Arkansas State and Old Dominion. Troy went 8-4 against the spread this season, with the under cashing in seven of its 12 games.
Will “Goose” Crowder stands in at quarterback after missing some time midseason due to a shoulder injury. Across the six games he has played, Crowder has completed 62.2% of his passes for 1,118 yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions, as well as one score on the ground. Tae Meadows headlines the rushing attack with 685 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Jordan Lovett adds 311 yards and two touchdowns, while quarterback Tucker Kilcrease racked up five rushing scores across nine games during Crowder’s absence. It is a widespread wide receiver attack with Rara Thomas, Tray Taylor and DJ Epps each tallying 430+ yards through the air and combining for 13 receiving touchdowns.
The Trojans rank 86th in the country in scoring at 25.2 points per game, while generating 325.6 total yards of offense (216.4 through the air). Troy is giving up 23.9 points per contest, which ranks 63rd among Division I programs. It’s giving up 377.8 total yards of offense, with 171 of these coming on the ground. Troy has started games slowly this year, ranking 126th in first-quarter scoring at just 3.2 points, but is posting the 10th-best fourth-quarter points differential at +5.0.
James Madison Dukes
James Madison enters this matchup with an 11-1 record on the season and has won 10 straight leading into the conference championship, including going a perfect 8-0 in Sun Belt play. Its lone loss came against Louisville. Curt Cignetti may have taken his talents to Indiana, and continues to look like one of the best coaches in the country, but Bob Chesney has not allowed the program to miss a beat. JMU is also 8-4 against the spread, with the under cashing in seven of its 12 games played.
Alonza Barnett III starts at quarterback, improving throughout the year. He is completing 61.6% of his passes for 2,440 passing yards, 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions while adding 459 rushing yards and 13 scores on the ground. Wayne Knight leads the rushing attack with 1,051 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on the season. He is one of only 13 players in the FBS with over 1,000 rushing yards on fewer than 200 carries, with 169 notched on the season. Landon Ellis is the team’s leading wide receiver with 532 yards through the air and five touchdowns. Nick DeGennaro, Knight and Jaylan Sanchez have each also pulled in 349+ receiving yards on the season, while seven total pass catchers have over 100 yards through the air.
JMU ranks 10th in the country in both points scored and allowed. The Dukes are generating 37.8 points per game and 451.4 total yards of offense. While this is partially inflated from playing with a lead frequently, the Dukes are generating 239.8 rushing yards per game this season. Opponents are scoring just 16 points per game and totaling 253.5 yards of offense. They have held opponents to 10 or fewer points in seven games this season.
Troy vs. JMU pick, best bet
The 23.5-point spread is significant for a conference championship, but I am backing James Madison to take care of business and surpass this number. Seven of its eight conference victories have come by double figures, with five of these coming by at least three touchdowns. The Dukes have not lost at home all season, with only one of these victories coming by single digits.
Troy has gotten better as the season has progressed, but is still mostly unremarkable across the board. The Trojans do not have as much of a defined style with their top characteristic being the way they are able to find ways to win. This is a difficult challenge against a team that can both put up points at an impressive rate and completely cut off your offensive output. While Troy deserves credit for its fourth-quarter production, JMU leads the entire country with a +7.9 points differential in the final period.
JMU is well aware that this is its last chance to add a bullet point to their college football playoff resume. Troy struggles to run the ball in general, and will now take on one of the top rushing defenses in the sport with JMU holding opponents to just 84.7 rushing yards per game. Expect the Troy offensive attack to become one dimensional and for the JMU defense to be ready to capitalize with 12 interceptions tallied already this season.
James Madison is the better team on both sides of the ball and will be intent on leaving it all on the field with the CFB playoff outlook in mind. Expect this game to get out of control early and for the Dukes to cruise to a victory by over the 23.5-point spread.
