Two of the NBA’s playoff hopefuls match up tonight at 7:30 p.m. EST in what’s sure to be a fun tilt between talented teams. The Denver Nuggets are title contenders as usual behind the efforts of multi-time MVP Nikola Jokic, but the Atlanta Hawks are winning games as well in the absence of Trae Young thanks to superstar-level play from Jalen Johnson. Who comes out on top in this inter-conference clash?
Here’s a Nuggets vs. Hawks prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday night’s duel.
Nuggets vs. Hawks prediction, preview
On one side, we have the Denver Nuggets in the midst of yet another excellent season as per usual. At the campaign’s quarter point, they sit 15-6 at fifth in the Western Conference, but this team could arguably place higher thanks to a dominant offense led by the arguable best player in basketball. Nikola Jokic is posting unbelievable numbers as always, averaging 28.7 PPG while leading the entire NBA with 12.6 rebounds and 11.1 assists per night as well. The only other player to accomplish the feat of pacing the league in the latter two categories in the same season was Wilt Chamberlain, so Jokic could land in rarified air if he keeps this up. With an offensive engine like that, it’s not shocking to see Denver averaging the most PPG of any team with the best OFFRTG as well, helping create the third-best NETRTG at +9.1 despite the defense falling around the middle of the pack.
Jokic’s co-star Jamal Murray is also playing career-best ball with 24.7 PPG and 6.6 assists a night while shooting a scorching 45.2% from three-point range as well. He comes of a massive 52-point performance in his last outing, so momentum is certainly on the guard’s side. While Aaron Gordon (hamstring) and Christian Braun (ankle) remain out tonight, Cam Johnson has largely improved of late with 16.7 PPG across his last six games, filling the role of the secondary scorer who was promised this offseason. Overall, this is an excellent team all around as the Nuggets rank top 10 in rebounds, assists, 3P%, and turnovers as well.
On the opposite sideline, the Atlanta Hawks aren’t quite the same level of dominant force as tonight’s opponent. At 13-10, they sit ninth in the Eastern Conference and probably aren’t a legitimate threat to make much noise in the postseason, but we’re yet to really see this iteration of the team work with Trae Young in the lineup, who’s still out with an MCL sprain. Without him though, the squad is staying alive largely thanks to the pairing of Jalen Johnson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. The former leads the team with 23.2 PPG and 10.0 rebounds a night while shooting 41.3% from three, while the latter looks like one of the best acquisitions of the offseason with 20.4 PPG and 3.5 assists in a featured role, career-best numbers.
While Johnson (calf) is questionable tonight along with big man Kristaps Porzingis (reconditioning), who averages 18.7 PPG and 5.9 boards, this is a scrappy Hawks group with talent elsewhere as well. Onyeka Okongwu plays well as the starting center and Dyson Daniels remains one of the best defensive guards in the league. Atlanta falls 15th in NETRTG at +1.1 and sits largely middle of the pack in both offense and defense, but the unit does play at the eighth-fastest pace and gets plenty of possessions while ranking top 10 in FG%, steals and blocks.
Nuggets vs. Hawks pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Nuggets as -5.5 favorites on the road tonight with -205 odds on the Moneyline. The Hawks are listed as +170 underdogs to win outright with the game total set at 238.5. As for betting splits, a whopping 88% of straight wagers favor Houston while 64% are on the total’s over.
As long as Johnson suits up for Atlanta, this can be a very competitive contest. Without him though, the outlook appears more bleak for the Hawks, especially if Porzingis is ruled out as well. That pair of frontcourt starters are key two-way threats who impact the game on both ends, and missing two of the top-three scorers certainly makes life difficult for any team. Assuming they both play, this shapes up as a matchup Atlanta may be able to sneakily cover. Daniels matches up well with Murray and the duo of Porzingis and Okongwu have enough size to at least make life a little bit challenging for Jokic, though slowing him down entirely is a proposition few players can meet. The Hawks are arguably a better team than their record indicates, and while the Nuggets are dominant as well, these could both be playoff teams for a reason. My one concern is that Denver holds a 9-2 road record, but Atlanta is 8-4 against the spread as an underdog this year regardless.
Top pick: ATL Hawks +5.5 (-105)
