Two years ago, the Dallas Mavericks and the Oklahoma City Thunder showed down in the playoffs. It was a heated matchup between two up-and-coming rosters; Dallas ultimately exposed the Thunder’s flaws on its way to a series win. Much has changed since.
Oklahoma City GM Sam Presti acted quickly to fix those flaws, delivering a 68-win title team last season. Meanwhile, the Mavericks were undone by former GM Nico Harrison, who traded away their franchise player for pennies on the dollar. Now these two meet again as the Thunder stampede through the season while the Mavericks limp through the post-Luka Doncic era.
The Thunder are 15.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. They’re priced at -1200 on the moneyline, while the Mavericks are +750 underdogs. The total for this game is set at 231.5 points. Let’s get into my preview, prediction, and pick for this Mavericks vs. Thunder game.
Mavericks vs. Thunder prediction, preview
The story here is the defense. Oklahoma City’s defense has been incredible, posting a 104.3 defensive rating per Cleaning the Glass. The gap between OKC and the second-best team is larger than the gap between second and 17th place. They’re just that good.
Despite their injuries and organizational turmoil, the Mavericks rank sixth in defense. But it feels like a house of cards; they’re first in three-point defense after being 15th last season. That’s a volatile stat that may come back to bite them sooner than later. However, there is a reason why they’re rating high. Anthony Davis remains a great defender, and they have good perimeter personnel like Naji Marshall and Max Christie. And it’s the 18-year-old Cooper Flagg roaming between them all, causing chaos wherever he goes.
At 8-15, Dallas’ season may not be going anywhere. Trades are on the horizon as the recently signed players’ deadline approaches. But they do have the best young player in the league, not named Victor Wembanyama. That will take them far in the long run.
Mavericks vs. Thunder pick, best bet
The Thunder are miles ahead of the Mavericks here. It’s a deservedly huge spread for the best team in the league. But the value here is on these defenses. I expect OKC to smother this struggling Dallas offense, while the Thunder themselves have some rough patches offensively. That’s enough to have value in the under.
