The American Conference Championship Game is one of the biggest games of the weekend, with the North Texas Mean Green taking on the Tulane Green Wave.
North Texas enters as a 2.5-point favorite with the total set at O/U 68.5 points. This is the best college football player prop bet to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for the American Conference Championship Game between North Texas and Tulane.
North Texas vs. Tulane Player Props
The American Conference Championship Game is one of the most intriguing games of the weekend. While the SEC and Big Ten title games are still important, all four teams are likely in the College Football Playoff. Texas Tech is in the CFP regardless of the outcome of the Big 12 title game and Duke might not make it even if they win the ACC. Of the nine conference title games this weekend, the American is the only game where the winner is in the College Football Playoff and the loser is out. Both coaches are heading off to Power Four conference jobs next season, with North Texas’ Eric Morris off to Oklahoma State and Tulane’s Jon Sumrall headed to Florida. There is so much intrigue around this game for many reasons, and one of the biggest is North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker.
Drew Mestemaker has set the college football world on fire in his redshirt freshman season. Not only is he one of the best freshmen in the country this season, but he also led the FBS in passing yards during the regular season. Mestemaker averaged 319.6 passing yards and 2.8 total touchdowns per game during the regular season. He has a great chance to top off this incredible season with a conference title and a College Football Playoff bid.
My favorite player prop for the American Conference Championship Game is for Drew Mestemaker to throw for at least three touchdown passes against Tulane. Mestemaker has done this in each of his past two games and in four of his past six, but the bet can still be found at +128 on DraftKings Sportsbook, presenting great value. North Texas led the country in total offense and scoring offense this season. Despite making the conference title game, Tulane gave up the fourth-most passing yards per game of any team in the American. Tulane ranks 97th nationally in defensive dropback success rate as well, struggling to slow down opposing passing games all season.
The biggest factor in this game is how well North Texas finishes drives and how poor the Tulane defense is at keeping teams out of the end zone. North Texas’ offense leads the nation in points per quality drive. This metric considers a quality drive any time an offense gets a first down within the opponent’s 40-yard line. North Texas is averaging 4.85 points per quality drive, meaning they are scoring touchdowns more often than not once they move it inside the opponent’s 40-yard line. Meanwhile, Tulane’s defense ranks 72nd in the nation in points per quality drive allowed. North Texas should move the ball down the field, and when they do, it should result in touchdowns. Drew Mestemaker should make it three straight games with three passing touchdowns in the biggest moment of his young career.
