After a scorching-hot start to the campaign, Chicago Bears wideout Rome Odunze has come crashing back to earth in recent weeks. With more poor performances than standout ones, fantasy managers who spent the opening matchups gloating about their young WR1 are likely grappling with whether he even belongs in weekly lineups. While he’s sidelined for Week 14, the fantasy playoffs loom large.
Can you trust Rome Odunze in fantasy playoff lineups moving forward?
Analysis
Odunze’s career has been a roller coaster through his first two professional seasons. The ninth pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Washington product flashed upside as a rookie but never quite hit his stride as the star who was promised. Now in year two, he’s again displayed signs of stardom on a more regular basis as a key cog in head coach Ben Johnson’s offense, but there’s little consistency to speak of as of late.
The 23-year-old immediately stepped in as the WR1 in the Bears’ offense to begin the season. From Weeks 1-4, he averaged a staggering 19.9 FPPG in PPR formats and delivered elite production in a featured role. Odunze saw 8.75 targets per game and averaged five catches and 74 yards with that workload. He hauled in five touchdowns over those four weeks with at least one in each game, emerging as a standout red-zone option for quarterback Caleb Williams. While he recorded over 69 yards just once, the scoring made up for the lack of massive outbursts and a seven-catch, 128-yard, two-TD outing in Week 2 delivered the ceiling fantasy managers only dream of.
However, things began to take a turn shortly thereafter. Since the Bears’ Week 5 bye, Odunze’s catch rate alongside Caleb Williams has plummeted to below 50%, partially due to accuracy issues from the quarterback but also due to concentration drops that are tougher to explain away. Despite still seeing excellent target share with at least six looks in six of his eight contests, the wideout has only reached double-digit fantasy points twice — 18.4 and 20.6 PPR points in Week 8 and Week 10 — while averaging just 8.3 FPPG. That’s far from fantasy production managers can count on.
What’s the deal with Odunze? While Rome wasn’t built in a day, it may take more time for him to truly recapture his form from the season’s early weeks. The 23-year-old has dealt with nagging heel and foot issues over the last several weeks which he’s played through, but heading into Week 14 against the NFC North rival Green Bay Packers, he’s set to miss the first game of his career. Additional clarity finally emerged after he was ruled out on Friday as NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported Odunze is dealing with a stress fracture. That news does help contextualize some of the inconsistencies in his play.
Playing through such an issue shows plenty of grit on Odunze’s part, but there are a couple of ways to read the situation moving forward. On one hand, the Bears are atop the NFC standings at the moment and could look to protect their top target earner’s health and ensure he’s good to go for a potential playoff berth. However, it’s also tough to see the team benching such a key piece of the offense ahead of what’s likely the most crucial divisional matchup of the remaining schedule. It’s very possible Odunze finally reached a point at which he truly felt like he can no longer play through the injury, in which case it’s difficult to envision it not affecting his play through the final three weeks of the fantasy postseason.
While he’s clearly a talented player with team-high target share of 23.5%, Odunze’s injury and still-developing connection with Williams make it difficult to trust him in any starting lineups moving forward. His route involvement has dropped in recent weeks from the 90% range into the 70% range, and the rookie duo of Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland also loom large as the team works to get them more involved in this passing game. That combination of factors means that if you have better options available, Odunze is likely a player to keep out of your playoff lineups unless your team is stacked enough at the top to gamble on the upside and weather a potential dud.
