It all comes down to this: a battle for Big 12 bragging rights and a postseason spot. #4 Texas Tech has been terrific all season, going 11-1. That includes a dominant 29-7 victory over BYU in November. One month later, the Cougars need a win to earn their way into the College Football Playoff.
Which of these conference rivals will come out on top this Saturday? Texas Tech enters this contest as 12.5-point favorites (-110) over BYU, with the over/under set at 49.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
BYU vs. Texas Tech prediction, preview
If not for a slip-up against Arizona State, the Red Raiders would be a near-lock to earn a CFP bye. However, a second loss would make things a bit dicey. Still, head coach Joey McGuire has turned this group into one of the nation’s best on both sides of the ball. Texas Tech ranks third in both points scored (43.2) and points scored against (11.2). That level of dominance is quite impressive, even for a school playing outside of the SEC or Big Ten. It also means TT has the ability to win games in a number of different ways.
It’s not as if Tech hasn’t faced its fair share of adversity. Starting quarterback Behren Morton has missed several games due to injury. However, the Red Raiders still managed to go 2-1 this season under backup Will Hammond. That includes an impressive road win over #15 Utah. It helps to have a strong ground game. Running back Cameron Dickey has churned out 1,023 rushing yards and 15 total touchdowns. In addition, RB2 J’Koby Williams has chipped in with over 1,000 yards from scrimmage and eight TDs. Unsurprisingly, the school ranks third in the Big 12 with 193.6 rushing yards per game.
For all their offensive prowess, the Red Raiders are a defensively-minded group. They lead the conference in sacks (37.0), tackles for loss (88.0), and yards allowed per game (258.9). Texas Tech has surrendered more than 300 yards in just three of its 12 appearances this season. When these programs last met, BYU only managed to gain 255 total yards. That includes a season-low 67 rushing yards on 27 attempts (2.5 YPC).
Finding more success on the ground is imperative for the Cougars if they have any chance at an upset. BYU ranks second in the Big 12 with 194.5 yards per carry. That’s due in large part to dual-threat extraordinaire Bear Bachmeier. This season, the freshman has gained 2,593 passing yards, 529 rushing yards and 25 total touchdowns. He’s joined by running back LJ Martin, who leads the conference with 1,229 rushing yards. Through the air, wide receivers Parker Kingston and Chase Roberts have combined for 1,517 yards and ten touchdowns. The latter missed last weekend’s game vs. UCF, but he’s currently listed as probable for Saturday.
Much like Tech, the Cougars are built to grind out ugly wins. BYU has given up 324.6 yards per game to its opponents, third-best in the Big 12. On defense, linebacker Jack Kelly leads the team with nine sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss. Defensive backs Tanner Wall and Evan Johnson have combined for eight interceptions; Brigham Young ranks second in the conference with 16 picks. However, Morton has turned the ball over just four times this season.
BYU vs. Texas Tech pick, best bet
BYU’s schedule hasn’t exactly been a gauntlet this season; the only ranked victories on its schedule have been one-possession nail-biters. However, it’s not unreasonable to expect a better showing than the last time these two schools met. That means a better run game and stiffer opposition on defense. Still, Tech is the more well-rounded team, especially on defense. Even if this becomes a two-possession contest, don’t expect much scoring. In this pivotal showdown, points will be at a premium.
