Now that the primary stage of the 2026 World Cup qualification has ended, we have a better idea of what the field will look like. Friday’s draw for the 12 Group Stage groupings crystallizes the picture. The matchups are set, and it’s time to take a closer look at the best futures. Let’s dig into my favorite bets.
Spain To Win The Cup +450
Let’s get the big one out of the way early. The Spanish are ranked No. 1 by FIFA for a reason; they haven’t lost a competitive match inside 90 minutes since March 2023. They’re strong at the back, especially on the defensive flanks. The midfield is full of great possession players who play progressive football. And what else can you say about the forward group, led by young dynamo Lamine Yamal?
Adding to their chances, they got a relatively soft draw today. Uruguay is the 16th side according to FIFA, but Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia both rank outside the top 50. Spain should have little trouble with dispatching those two, assuring their spot in the knockout rounds. From there, the talent will get to work.
Morocco To Win Group C +450
Okay, hear me out. Group C looks like a bloodbath; Brazil is the top side and a genuine contender for the Cup. Morocco is the highest-ranked team in Africa, full of quality talent. And Scotland fought for qualification on the back of a massive upset against Denmark. Those three-headed-snake groups tend to produce funky results.
Brazil is the odds-on favorite to claim the group, but the Moroccans are more than capable of coming out of the fray. If the two sides draw level, or Morocco claims an outright victory, the group turns into chaos. How they handle Scotland and how badly they beat Haiti would then decide the group. There’s enough value here on a strong Moroccan side to come out of Group C.
Netherlands To Win All Group Games +300
Group F follows a run-of-the-mill group balance. The Dutch, FIFA’s 7th-ranked side, are the projected leaders. Japan (18th) is projected to have the inside track on a qualifying spot. Tunisia (40th) could be scrappy but faces an uphill battle to qualify. And the fourth spot will be decided in the last qualifying round. Things are primed for a thorough Dutch rout.
Japan is the main obstacle here. They have solid talent top to bottom, but their defense will be their weakness. The Dutch don’t have many flaws, especially in defense. Manager Ronald Koeman has plenty of midfielders at his disposal, and the attacking group led by Cody Gakpo and Memphis Depay always shows its quality. If the Netherlands can take care of Japan, they’re poised to run the table in Group F.
USA To Win Group D +150
Surprise, surprise; the host country got a favorable draw. Under the leadership of Mauricio Pochettino, most expected great things from Team USA in the upcoming World Cup. This may have been their chance to make some noise in the knockout stages. After today’s draw, that chance has improved significantly.
In Group D, the USA is joined by Australia and Paraguay. Those are two sides the USA has defeated recently. The fourth team will be one of Turkey, Kosovo, Romania, or Slovakia. Of those four, Turkey would pose the biggest threat with the talent of Arda Guler, but I don’t see them as a big enough obstacle to throw off the group favorites.
Nothing can be taken for granted with USA soccer. But this is their best chance of advancing in quite some time, and I expect them to take it.
Uruguay To Make The Semifinal +550
Group H may end up being the bellwether of this entire World Cup. Spain is the presumptive favorite, as we discussed, but Uruguay is loaded with potential. Assuming they can secure one of the two knockout spots from the group, they’ll be a dangerous side for any team to face.
The Uruguayans are strong at the back with Ronald Araujo and Jose Maria Gimenez leading the way. Manuel Ugarte, Rodrigo Bentancur, and Federico Valverde form a great possession trio in midfield. The offense is the weak spot, but Darwin Nunez is capable of spots of brilliance and has looked great during qualifiers. It’s a team that can bog opponents down in the final third while relying on progressive balls from the midfield to spring their attack.
Uruguay’s ability to win it all is highly questionable. But they’re capable of pulling an upset or two to challenge for a spot in the final.
