These are my picks to win every Week 14 NFL game straight-up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier.
You can bet on any of these games on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 14 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Buccaneers over Saints
The Buccaneers are finally getting healthy on offense, with Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin back on the field and Mike Evans returning to practice. Tampa Bay still leads the NFC South and has a great chance to win it, especially if it takes care of these divisional games. The Buccaneers are 6-1 in their past seven games against the Saints. While New Orleans is showing some decent fight, that team is not up to par with Tampa Bay. Baker Mayfield should handle business and win this one.
Rams over Cardinals
The Rams are coming off a dramatic road loss to the Panthers, but this is a good spot to bounce back. Jacoby Brissett provided the Cardinals with an initial spark, but Arizona has now lost four games in a row. Sean McVay’s teams always get better as the year goes on, sporting a 26-11 SU record in December with the Rams. McVay is also 7-1 SU in his career on the road in Arizona. Matthew Stafford should pick this defense apart and get a rebound win.
Broncos over Raiders
The Broncos continue to find ways to win games despite some clear flaws. Seven of their past eight win have come by four points or fewer, constantly flirting with disaster. That being said, this should be a more comfortable win for Denver. The Raiders are in total disarray, having lost each of their last three games by at least 14 points. The Denver defense should completely shut down the struggling Las Vegas offense, permitting the struggling Denver offense to get by without doing much.
Seahawks over Falcons
The Falcons have now lost six of their past seven games after losing to the Jets last week. Kirk Cousins is really struggling at quarterback and this offense has no juice whatsoever. The defense is struggling to hold up over the course of a game due to the amount of time spent on the field. Against this explosive Seattle passing attack, Atlanta could break down defensively. The Seahawks are seven-point favorites in this game, and Sam Darnold is 10-0 SU in his career when favored by six or more points. He should keep that streak going with a win in Atlanta on Sunday.
Ravens over Steelers
The Ravens fell to the Joe Burrow-led Bengals last week and need to get back on track, with little room for error if they want to win the AFC North. The two teams have the same record and still play each other twice in the final weeks of this season, meaning the head-to-heads could very well determine the division winner. While these rivalry games are always tough, the Ravens should find a way to win. While these games have been historically tight, the Ravens beat the Steelers by 14 in the playoffs last season and by 17 in Baltimore in the regular season. The talent gap between these teams is clear and the Ravens should get a bounce-back win.
Medium Confidence
Packers over Bears
The Packers and Bears are competing for first place in the NFC North this week. Green Bay gets the home-field advantage in this one, then the teams meet again in Chicago in two weeks. The Packers should take care of business at home, despite the Bears’ great run of form. The Bears have not had to face an elite passing attack during this winning streak and the Packers just so happen to lead the NFL in offensive EPA/dropback. Matt LaFleur is the king of December. He is 20-4 SU overall in December, 10-1 SU at home and with ten or more days of prep, he is 4-0 SU. The Packers do have one extra day of prep over the Bears, in addition to the home-field advantage. The Bears are 1-11 SU in their last 12 against the Packers, with that lone win coming in Week 18 last season when the Packers benched their starters after a couple of drives. The Packers should keep the dominance going and get the win.
Browns over Titans
This is one of the uglier games of the weekend, but between the two teams, the Browns’ defense is by far the best unit. Both rookie quarterbacks have yet to prove much at the NFL level. The Browns’ defense is elite at home, and the Titans are averaging just 11.6 PPG on the road this season. Quinshon Judkins might just need to break one big run for the Browns to win this game.
Bills over Bengals
The Bills still have a shot at the AFC East title with a strong finish to the season. A win this week gets them within two games of the Patriots, as New England is on a bye. Then they face New England head-to-head the following week, where a win would get them within just one game of the Patriots. That could open the door for a last-minute push from Buffalo. However, first they need to beat the Bengals, who looked sparked by Joe Burrow’s return last week. That spark could wear off a bit in a second straight tough road game. While they played well last week, this Cincinnati defense has major issues. Josh Allen should exploit those and win the game.
Chiefs over Texans
This is one of the most intriguing games of the weekend. Both teams have been AFC playoff regulars in recent seasons, but are battling hard for spots this season. Houston has the best defense in the NFL, and the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes. It should be a great duel, but due to the home-field advantage, I give the edge to the Chiefs here. The Texans’ offense could struggle, and Mahomes can put together one big drive to win the game when needed.
Lions over Cowboys
The Cowboys have been playing much better the past few weeks and could even sneak into the postseason if they keep winning. This win would be massive for Dallas as the Lions are one of the teams that they are chasing in the NFC Wild Card race. While this is lower on my confidence rankings, I do think Detroit will get it done, however. The Dallas defense has been much better, but the Lions’ unique offense could expose some of the old wounds that they’ve covered up in recent weeks. The Detroit crowd should be great for this game and could be the difference in getting its team a win.
Coin-Flip Games
Eagles over Chargers
These are two talented teams that have struggled with consistency all season. Both defenses have allowed fewer than 21 points per game this season and are tough to beat. However, both offenses have struggled to produce on a regular basis, despite the talent on the field. This is a coin-flip game with the Eagles needing to travel across the country. However, I’ll back the Eagles because they have more weapons on offense who could make a big play when needed.
Colts over Jaguars
The Colts and Jaguars are tied atop the AFC South, making this one of the biggest games of the NFL season so far. The Jaguars have dominated this series in recent years, but I have more trust in the Colts’ coaching staff to come up with the correct game plan to win. Indianapolis has lost back-to-back close games against tough opponents, but should be able to bounce back. The Colts’ rushing attack has a chance to dominate this game and ensure the win.
Jets over Dolphins
The Jets have been playing much better over the past few weeks. Tyrod Taylor is a clear upgrade at quarterback over Justin Fields and has been able to stretch the field with John Metchie and AD Mitchell. The Jets’ defense is also playing at a high level the last couple of weeks, despite trading away its two best players. The Jets are also elite on special teams, with Nick Folk leading the NFL in field goal percentage among kickers who have played the whole season. Neither of these teams is very good, so anything can happen. However, Aaron Glenn is trying to build a culture in New York and this team could be more motivated to keep performing.
Commanders over Vikings
The Vikings are in total disarray. Whether it is Max Brosmer, J.J. McCarthy or Carson Wentz at quarterback, this offense is inept. As a result, Brian Flores’ typically superb defense is suffering as well. While the Commanders are struggling as well, they have been more competitive as of late. There is a chance Jayden Daniels returns, which would give them a boost. However, Marcus Mariota has played much better than any of the Vikings’ quarterbacks. The home-field advantage could tilt it to Minnesota, but Washington has been the more competitive team as of late so I’ll back them to win.
