It’s only December. It’s only Week 14. Yet tonight’s matchup between the Cowboys and the Lions is essentially an elimination game. Neither team will want to pick up their sixth loss of the season in a highly competitive NFC Wild Card race — especially Dallas, as a Week 4 overtime tie against the Packers looms large.
Who will win and keep their Super Bowl dreams alive? Unclear. That’s not the question I’m here to answer, anyway. Instead, let’s break down some first touchdown scorer odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook and try to predict which player will reach the end zone to open Thursday Night Football.
Here are my top picks.
Cowboys at Lions First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Javonte Williams First Touchdown Scorer (+650)
We’re going to take a bit of a bigger swing with our other first touchdown scorer prop bet for this game, so I don’t mind being a bit conservative by backing Javonte Williams at the top of the board. While the Lions haven’t allowed many rushing touchdowns through 13 weeks, the defense has been far less effective at stopping the run as the season’s dragged on. To wit, Detroit has conceded a whopping 131.7 opponent rushing yards per game over the past three weeks. Then there’s just Williams’ role. The former second-round pick has been a major element of the Cowboys’ red zone offense all year long, seeing 67.8% of the team’s rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line — the fourth-highest mark in the league. On top of that, Williams is one of only two running backs with double-digit target totals in the red zone, joining Christian McCaffrey. The man is going to get his opportunities to score.
Ross Dwelley First Touchdown Scorer (+2500)
You know that game that every sports fan plays with their friends? The one where you just sit around and list off names you remember from the past? Well, that’s sort of what the Lions’ tight end depth chart is like at the moment. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Dan Campbell has weighed suiting up for a few snaps this evening out of pure necessity. Sam LaPorta (back) went on IR in mid-November and is unlikely to return this season, while Brock Wright (neck) will miss his second straight contest in Week 14 due to his own ailment. That leaves the likes of Ross Dwelley and Anthony Firkser to pick up the pieces. It’s obviously also worth noting that Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable for TNF with an ankle injury. St. Brown leads the NFL by a wide margin in red zone target share (41.3%), so if he ends up sidelined, it creates a massive void for Detroit in that high-leverage area of the field. On Thanksgiving, Dwelley logged a 74.6% snap rate and saw a pair of targets inside the opponent’s 10-yard line. He’s undoubtedly TE1 in this spot, and that alone makes his 25/1 odds of scoring the first touchdown far too long. There’s real value here, even if you simply want to bet Dwelley for an anytime touchdown at +400 with much less risk.
