This is the last week with byes. I’m so freaking happy that I want to cry. Then get up and dance to Gangnam Style by PSY. After my eyes get dry and I dismount the imaginary horse that bucked me high, it’s time to order the Mai Tai, or the tea with chai, whichever the taste buds abide by, then buckle down and research which guy has the best chance to blow up, prompting me to click buy, buy, buy!!! But we shall not just throw darts at the board like a monkey. No, sir or ma’am. We shall apply our talents provided by the most high, including that keen eye. Locate all the mines nearby. Make sure everyone qualifies. Verify. Then bellow out the war cry, Bonsaaaaiiiii!!!!
Carolina, New England, Giants and San Francisco have a bye this week.
We’ve got 11 games on this main slate. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, three games have a spread of three points or less. The biggest favorites are TB -8.5 over NO and LAR -8.5 over ARI. Three games have a total of at least 45 points. The lowest total is TEN/CLE at 33.5 points. There are five home dogs.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
Quarterback
Stud
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals ($6,900) – Stafford had a sub-par performance last week, finishing with 14.6 FPTS while throwing two interceptions. Prior to that game, he had thrown two interceptions all season, one in Week 2 and the other in Week 3. The Rams had to travel across the country for that one against a feisty Panthers team that is now 7-6 on the season. While this is another road game, the travel won’t be as long as last week. Arizona is 26th in pressure rate and has posted the 12th-highest EPA per dropback. I like Stafford and the Rams to bounce back in this one.
Other Options – Josh Allen ($7,700), Joe Burrow ($6,500)
Value
Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams ($5,700) – I put Brissett into the value section maybe five weeks ago. He hasn’t left this spot since. All I’ve been doing is updating the stats like a Mad Lib. Since entering the starting lineup, Brissett has put up over 20 FPTS in all seven contests. He’s thrown two touchdowns in all but one of those games and has four games with at least 44 pass attempts, including a 47-of-57 performance for 452 yards three weeks ago. I won’t stop, can’t stop, will not stop clicking on Brissett. At least not until he stops. Brissett started out at $4,200, so there’s been inflation. The matchup isn’t great as the Rams have posted the third-lowest EPA per dropback, but Los Angeles will likely put up points, forcing Brissett to remain aggressive. In addition, Brissett has performed in every kind of scenario to date.
Other Options – Jordan Love ($5,900), Marcus Mariota ($5,000), Tyrod Taylor ($4,900)
Running Back
Stud
James Cook, Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($7,800) – There are quite a few running backs I love this week, so decisions will have to be made. I chose Cook for this slot for a number of reasons. First and foremost, he’s awesome. Secondly, he’s $1,000 cheaper than De’Von Achane. Thirdly, the Bengals are one of the plush matchups for running backs, as they have allowed the second-highest EPA per carry, 5.1 yards per carry and 14 touchdowns. In addition, Cincinnati has allowed the sixth-most receptions, the second-most yards and the most receiving touchdowns to running backs. Finally, there’s a slight chance that Joe Burrow can make this a back-and-forth affair. If so, that raises the potential ceiling for Cook.
Other Options – De’Von Achane ($8,300), Josh Jacobs ($6,800), Chase Brown ($6,700), Breece Hall ($6,500)
Value
Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons ($5,100) – Kenneth Walker III out-snaps Charbonnet and garners more targets than Charbonnet. Last week, Walker played 55% of the snaps and got four targets while Charbonnet was in on 39% of the snaps and did not receive a target. Charbonnet got all four goal line opportunities, though, while Walker did not receive one. Those are the money touches, and they are going to Charbonnet, who is $500 cheaper as well. Atlanta has allowed the fifth-highest EPA per carry with 10 rushing touchdowns and 4.5 yards per carry.
Other Options – RJ Harvey ($5,700), Kenneth Walker III ($5,600), Emanuel Wilson ($4,800) if Josh Jacobs is out
Wide Receiver
Stud
Davante Adams, Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals ($7,700) – Adams didn’t practice Wednesday due to a hamstring injury, but Sean McVay expects him to play this Sunday. Puka Nacua is the target hog but Adams gets more red zone looks. On the season, Adams has 28 red zone looks to only 12 for Nacua. Over the last six games, Adams has put up over 20 FPTS four times while Nacua has performed the feat just once. Adams is $1,000 cheaper than Nacua.
Other Options – Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($9,000), Puka Nacua ($8,700), Ja’Marr Chase ($8,200), Jaylen Waddle ($6,800), Tee Higgins ($6,200)
Value
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings ($5,200) – In his return from a three-game absence, McLaurin garnered a whopping 14 targets in Week 13, catching seven for 96 yards and a touchdown. He only played 51% of the snaps! I’d expect the snap share to increase for this one. If so, McLaurin is too cheap for the expected role and volume.
Other Options – Jakobi Meyers ($5,700), Michael Wilson ($5,600) if Marvin Harrison Jr. is out, Khalil Shakir ($5,300), Christian Watson ($5,200), Adonai Mitchell ($4,600), Keon Coleman ($4,000), Luther Burden III ($3,800), Devaughn Vele ($3,700), Pat Bryant ($3,400)
Tight End
Stud
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams ($8,000) – With Brissett under center, McBride has become one of the best receivers in the game, irrespective of position. He’s been peppered with at least nine targets in all seven Brissett starts with five of those being double-digits. He’s scored a touchdown in all but one of those seven starts. That’s all translated to at least 16 FPTS in each of the last seven games with five over 20 and two over 30 FPTS.
Other Options – Tyler Warren ($5,000), Zach Ertz ($4,500)
Value
Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts ($3,900) – Strange has finished with double-digit FPTS in four of the last five games. The Colts have allowed the fifth-most FPTS on average, the fourth-most receptions, the fourth-most targets and the second-most yards to the tight end position this season.
Other Options – Juwan Johnson ($4,000), Darren Waller ($3,800), Harold Fannin Jr. ($3,700), Evan Engram ($3,400), T.J. Hockenson ($3,300), Colby Parkinson ($3,100)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Browns DST vs. Tennessee Titans ($3,700) – Cleveland is fifth in pressure rate and second in sacks. Now the unit gets to feast on Cam Ward, who has taken the most sacks in the league. The Browns DST has put up double-digit FPTS four times this season with a high of 25 FPTS.
Other Options – Seahawks DST ($4,000), Broncos DST ($3,900)
Value
Falcons DST vs. Seattle Seahawks ($2,500) – If, and it’s a big if, the Falcons can shut down the Seahawks running game, then there’s a chance the unit can get to Sam Darnold. Atlanta is sixth in pressure rate and third in sacks. While Darnold has developed into a very good quarterback, there have still been flashes when he’s seen ghosts and coughed up a plethora of turnovers.
Other Options – Vikings DST ($3,000), Jaguars DST ($2,700), Jets DST ($2,500)
