While Gainwell ($5,000) has had some big games recently, Warren ($6,000) continued to operate as the Steelers’ main back in this past Sunday’s loss to the Bills. Warren turned 12 touches into 44 yards and a touchdown (12.6 FPTS), while Gainwell gained 45 yards on seven touches (6.5 FPTS).
Warren logged 55.8% of the snaps and saw a 58.8% rush share, whereas Gainwell logged 41.9% of the snaps and saw a 29.4% rush share. In the passing game, Warren ran a route on 60% of his team’s dropbacks and saw a target on 23% of his routes, while Gainwell ran a route on 50% of his team’s dropbacks and saw a target on 18% of his routes.
All these rates are very close to these back’s averages for the season, and with the lead role, Warren is a solid RB3/FLEX play on a weekly basis, while Gainwell is fringe FLEX play. This Sunday, the Steelers are in a must-win situation vs. the Ravens, as they two AFC North rivals are tied at 6-6 in the standings.
Baltimore has been stout on the ground recently, giving up the third-fewest yards per rush in their last three games (3.7), but the Ravens have continued to be susceptible to pass catching backs, allowing the eighth-most receiving yards to backs during this time (135).
While the Steelers are a 5.5-point underdog for this matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook and likely to be in a negative game script, Warren should see 10-15 touches and is a decent bet for double-digit FPTS, while Gainwell is likely to score single-digit FPTS for the second week in the row. While neither back is very appealing this week, Warren remains the clear better option over Gainwell.
