At 13-5, the Rockets rank among the NBA’s elite championship contenders. However, jostling for position in the loaded Western Conference is no easy task. Houston needs to stack wins, especially against less talented opposition. That includes tonight’s contest against the 5-16 Kings. Sacramento, mired with injuries and underperformance, is in need of a midseason spark.
Can the Kings earn a much-needed upset, or will the Rockets continue stacking W’s? Below is my preview, prediction and pick for Wednesday’s game between the Sacramento Kings and the Houston Rockets.
The Rockets are 15.5-point favorites (-110) over the Kings on DraftKings Sportsbook. Houston is favored at -1350 on the moneyline. The total is set at 229.5 points.
Kings vs. Rockets prediction, preview
Any discussion on the Rockets starts with Kevin Durant. With respect to the rest of the team, Houston will only go as far as the former MVP can take them. Through 16 games, the veteran is averaging 25.1 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists to go with 49/38/88 shooting splits. Last season, this group struggled to create its own shot against upper echelon defensive units. That’s not nearly as much of an issue with KD in the fold. Still, it’s not as if the future Hall of Famer is doing it all by himself. Alperen Sengun has been an ideal running mate. The All-Star has recorded 22.8 points, 9.1 rebounds and 7.8 assists per game.
As for the rest of the roster, Houston has stayed true to its reputation as a tough, gritty defense. Opponents have notched the second-fewest points (111.2), fourth-fewest assists (25.2) and ninth-fewest rebounds (51.1) per game vs. the Rockets. However, their defensive capabilities will be somewhat limited on Wednesday. Wings Tari Eason (hip) and Dorian Finney-Smith (ankle) have been ruled out. In addition, center Steven Adams (ankle) is questionable to play. The latter offers significant impact on both ends of the floor. The 6’11” Adams is the biggest contributor to Houston’s league-leading 16.6 offensive rebounds per game.
Speaking of rebounds, Sacramento has surrendered the eighth-most rebounds per game to its opponents (55.5). That’s a direct result of a knee injury to face of the franchise Domantas Sabonis. Without their big man, the Kings have been forced to use an assortment of uninspiring options down low. To make matters worse, guards Malik Monk (shoulder) and Dennis Schroeder (hip) are questionable tonight. That places even more pressure on DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine, Sacramento’s leading scorer. This season, the latter has accounted for 20.7 points, 3.2 rebounds and 2.4 assists with 49/38/85 shooting splits. In six of his 19 outings, the All-Star has reached 30 points. However, he’s also put up four different single-digit performances.
Sacramento, with 16 losses, have left much to be desired this season. It’s not as if the team has faced world beaters recently, either. Three straight defeats have come against the Jazz, Grizzlies and Suns. The Kings rank 27th in offensive rating (109.6) and 25th in defensive rating (120.6). That’s good enough for a -10.9 net rating, second-worst in the NBA. In comparison, Houston is the second-best in basketball at +10.8.
Kings vs. Rockets pick, best bet
A 15.5-point spread can look somewhat daunting upon first glance. After all, these are professional athletes – even the worst clubs have the potential to keep things close. With that being said, the Kings weren’t very good at full strength. The potential losses of Sabonis, Monk and Schroeder make it difficult to see them putting up a fight. Houston often finds itself in rock fights, partially due to its offense playing at the NBA’s second-slowest pace (96.7). However, Sacramento’s offense operates at the association’s seventh-fastest pace (101.4). A more uptempo affair could lend itself to a larger margin of victory for the hometown Rockets.
