The Miami Heat have been among the most surprising teams in the Eastern Conference this season, winning seven of their last eight games to climb to third in the conference behind only the Detroit Pistons and the Toronto Raptors. After 17 seasons of gritting and grinding, Erik Spoelstra has the Heat running and gunning this season, as they’ve played at easily the league’s fastest pace. In part, their offensive success and style can be attributed to their marquee offseason acquisition, guard Norman Powell ($6,600), who’s averaged a career-high 25.0 points per game while canning 45.8% of his three-pointers, looking like a strong contender to make his first All-Star team at age 32.
Tonight, though, Miami will be without Powell when it takes on the Dallas Mavericks at 8:30 p.m. ET in North Texas. He’s been dealing with an ankle sprain after missing some time with a groin injury earlier in the season, and with the Heat set to play three games in the next four days, he was ruled out for tonight’s contest, although no determination has been made yet on his availability for the back-to-back on Friday and Saturday. Miami will take on the top-seeded Orlando Magic in the NBA Cup quarterfinals next Tuesday.
The last time Powell sat out a contest — coincidentally, also against the Mavericks on November 24 — Pelle Larsson ($4,400) stepped into the starting lineup, but he’s questionable as he deals with a toe sprain. The starting back-court should remain unchanged, with Davion Mitchell ($5,100) starting next to Tyler Herro ($7,700), who’s averaged 39.4 FPTS per game in his four games since returning from offseason foot surgery. If he’s healthy, Larsson could step back into Powell’s spot, but it’s more likely that the Heat instead opt to go for a double-big look with Bam Adebayo ($7,700) at power forward and Kel’el Ware ($5,700) at center, especially if Dallas gets Daniel Gafford ($5,100) back to start alongside Anthony Davis ($8,800).
Herro and Jaime Jaquez Jr. ($5,600) will probably absorb most of Powell’s shots, making each of them a strong play despite the Mavericks posting the league’s fifth-best defensive rating. Herro should be especially viable, given that Dallas has allowed the 12th-most FPTS per game to opposing guards. Plus, despite the Mavericks allowing the fourth-fewest FPTS to opposing wings, Jaquez could thrive too, given that they’ve allowed the fifth-most shot attempts at the rim and Jaquez ranks 12th in the league in drives per game.
Miami opened as a 5.5-point favorite prior to the update in Powell’s status, but after he was ruled out, the line was moved to 4.5 points in the Heat’s favor at DraftKings Sportsbook (-175 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 239.5. Dallas is +145 on the Moneyline.
