NC State Wolfpack vs. Auburn Tigers prediction, preview (9:15pm ET)
Both of these teams are off participating in tournaments over Thanksgiving, with Auburn going 2-1 in Las Vegas and NC State going 1-2 in Maui. These teams opened the season with pretty similar rankings, but are tracking in completely different directions. Generally, I might argue fading the team off three games in three days last week in Vegas would be the move, which would mean betting against the Tigers. But I think it’s an even stronger spot to fade the Wolfpack, who played three games in three days in Hawaii.
Not only did NC State have a disappointing performance in Maui, but it now needs to travel all the way back east, and transition right into its first true road game of the season. The Wolfpack went 4-0 at home to start the season, but against lower level competition, struggling to put away a decent team in VCU.
NC State was a pretty sizable favorite to win the Maui Invitational, but immediately got knocked off in the first game as a near double digit favorite against Seton Hall. The Wolfpack went on to beat Boise State, but the Broncos are a team that opened their season with an outright loss to a Division 2 school. NC State was favored for the third time in Maui in its final game against Texas, which was another loss.
Now the Wolfpack have to go on the road to play a very good Auburn team in a very tough place to play. Yes, the Tigers have two losses, just like NC State. But not all losses are the same, obviously. Auburn lost by a single point to a Houston team considered among the elite in the country, and then lost in Vegas to a Michigan team that steamrolled everyone put in front of them.
Auburn also has quality wins, which the Wolfpack can’t claim. The Tigers got double digit victories over both Oregon (as a 3.5-point favorite) and Saint John’s (as a 4.5-point underdog) during their trip to Vegas. The number on this game has been bet up a couple points since open, and I agree with the move. NC State should improve as the season goes on, but it isn’t a good team right now. Auburn is, and has proven it can handle stiff competition. The Tigers will be ready for this one at home.
Dating back to last season, NC State has lost 14 games in a row on the road. Auburn certainly doesn’t feel like the place to bounce back. With the point spread growing, I’m looking to back the Tigers on the halftime/fulltime result — essentially to lead at halftime and go on to win the game. I think Auburn gets going early here and doesn’t look back.
