The Bucks are hosting the Pistons on Wednesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Detroit is favored by 4.5 points and this game carries a total of 229.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Bucks vs. Pistons preview, prediction
The Bucks have gotten off to a poor start this season, with a 18-13 record and the team ranking 19th in net rating. Giannis Antetokounmpo has missed six games – including a 129-116 loss to the Pistons on November 22nd – but he will play tonight. While Milwaukee is better with the former MVP active, the Bucks still are only 8-8 in the games Antetokonmpo has played in. The superstar continues to put up huge numbers, averaging 30.6 points, 10.7 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game, but Antetokounmpo has been less impactful on the defensive end than previous seasons, as the Bucks’ defensive rating is only slightly better with him on the court this season. Overall, Milwaukee ranks just 24th in defensive rating, after they finished 12th last season.
The Bucks also only rank 16th in offensive rating, as the team lacks legitimate scorers outside of Antetokounmpo. Ryan Rollins has improved and ranks second to Antetouknmpo in scoring for the Bucks with a career-high 17.7 PPG, but Rollins has been inconsistent when Antetokounmpo has been in the lineup. Kevin Porter Jr. can provide some offense for the Bucks when healthy, but he just made his season two games ago and is questionable tonight with a back injury. After that, there is Kyle Kuzma, Myles Turner and Bobby Portis, but all three of these veterans have struggled to score the ball consistently this season.
All in all, Antetokounmpo is asked to do so much when active, with the forward ranking second in the NBA in usage rate (36.1%) and Antetokounmpo simply doesn’t have enough help around him to make this Bucks team a legitimate contender in the Eastern Conference, which has caused trade rumors surrounding Antetokounmpo to heat up as the season progresses.
While Milwaukee has been a disappointment, the Pistons have been one of the league’s most improved teams this season. Detroit leads the Eastern Conference with a 17-4 record and the team ranks fifth in net rating. The Pistons are a solid 13th in offensive rating, but they hang their hat on the defensive end, ranking second in defensive rating, trailing only the defending champion Thunder.
Cade Cunningham continues to improve in his fifth season and is an MVP candidate, averaging 28.2 points, 9.3 assists and 6.5 rebounds per game, all of which are career-highs for the guard. Jalen Duren has also taken a big step forward and is having a career season, averaging 19.6 points and 11.8 rebounds per game, after averaging just 11.8 PPG last season. On top of his improved scoring, Duren has been one of the top defensive big men in the league, and after Cunningham and Duren, Detroit has a strong collection of role players in Tobias Harris, Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson and Caris LeVert to round out this roster.
The Pistons do sometimes rely too much on Cunningham, which could be a problem for the team come playoff time, but in plus matchups like tonight vs. the Bucks, who are giving up the sixth-most points to point guards this season, Cunningham should have his way and put his team on his back.
Bucks vs. Pistons pick, best bet
While this will be a different matchup than when these two division rivals went head-to-head a few weeks ago, given Antetokonmpo will be active this time around, we should expect another Pistons win, regardless of this game being in Milwaukee.
The Bucks are only 6-6 at home, whereas the Pistons are 8-2 on the road, which is the second-best away record in the NBA behind only the Thunder. Detroit is 6-4 ATS on the road this season and the the team is a strong bet to cover this 4.5-point spread.
