The Pacers are hosting the Nuggets on Wednesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Denver is favored by 7.5 points and this game carries a total of 237.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Pacers vs. Nuggets preview, prediction
With Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles) out for the season, the Pacers have had a rough start to the season. The club is just 4-17 and ranks 27th in net rating, as Indiana ranks 29th in offensive rating and 20th in defensive rating. As you can see, the Pacers’ main problem is their offense, which is no surprise with Haliburton sidelined, as the guard not only averaged 18.6 points last season, but he averaged 9.2 assists per game. Let’s also not forget that Myles Turner, who averaged 15.6 PPG last season and is one of the best three-point shooting big men in the league, departed for the Bucks in free agency this offseason.
With Haliburton and Turner out of the picture, Pascal Siakam is Indiana’s main option and he is leading the team with 24.1 PPG. Bennedict Mathurin is also averaging a career-high 21.1 PPG with a more featured role, but the Pacers as a whole are a poor shooting team, ranking dead last in both field-goal percentage (42.6%) and three-point percentage (31.7%). This Indiana roster simply lacks offensive firepower and while this is a plus matchup vs. a Nuggets team that will be without their best defender in Aaron Gordon (hamstring), it will be challenging for the Pacers to score enough points to keep pace with Denver.
With Gordon sidelined for the last five, Denver’s defensive rating has been the worst in the league, but its offense has remained elite, leading the NBA in rating. The Nuggets are 14-6 and rank third in net rating this season, but they are just 4-3 with Gordon inactive, as he leads the team in plus/minus. Nikola Jokic continues to dominate the league this season, averaging 29.0 points, 12.8 rebounds and 11.1 assists per game, with those latter two stats being league-highs. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Jokic is the current favorite to win MVP at +150, which would be his fourth time winning the award if it comes to fruition.
While Jokic is incredible, Gordon being sidelined is a notable loss for Denver and Jamal Murray (ankle) is also questionable tonight. The guard is having a career season, averaging 23.3 points and 6.7 assists per game, and if Murray is out, the Nuggets’ offense will suffer. That being said, the veteran has missed one game this season and ironically, Gordon was also inactive for that contest and this matchup was vs. the Pacers, which ended up being a 117-100 win for the Nuggets. This game was in Denver, whereas tonight’s matchup will be in Indiana, so we should expect a more competitive affair this evening.
Pacers vs. Nuggets pick, best bet
With or without Murray, the Nuggets are still the better club over the Pacers, and Denver should get a win tonight. However, the Nuggets covering this 7.5-point spread could get tricky with Gordon sidelined, as the Pacers are 7-4 ATS at home this season.
The best way to bet on this game is backing Denver -2.5 in the first quarter, as the Nuggets are a league-best 15-5 ATS in the first quarter this season, while Indiana is just 8-13.
