Dallas and Detroit have had different season arcs. Dallas was a debacle in their nine games prior to the bye, going 3-5 with a tie. Detroit was destroying the competition, going 5-2. My, how things have changed recently.
Since their Week 10 bye, Dallas has rattled off three straight, with two impressive wins over Philadelphia and Kansas City. Since their Week 8 bye, Detroit is 2-3, with two of those losses at home, and now likely won’t have star wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown for this one.
The big bugaboo for Detroit since their bye has been the pass defense, allowing seven touchdowns and the highest EPA per dropback. The 53.7 completion percentage is the third-lowest mark, though. The rush defense has been solid, allowing only 3.6 yards per carry and one touchdown, good for the seventh-lowest EPA per carry. On the season, Detroit has allowed the 13th-highest EPA per dropback and 16th-highest EPA per carry.
For much of the season, the Dallas defense was the laughingstock of the NFL, posting the highest EPA per carry and second-highest EPA per dropback. In the last three games, the pass defense has improved, posting the eighth-highest EPA per dropback and the fifth-highest EPA per carry. Sure, that’s going from terrible to bad, but it’s still an improvement. The pass defense is allowing a 67 completion percentage, though, while the rush defense has only allowed 3.9 yards per carry and one touchdown.
Dak Prescott has been great for Dallas all season. Jared Goff? Not so much. Over the last five games, Goff is completing only 58.5% of his passes with five touchdowns and two interceptions. The EPA per dropback for Detroit over that span is the 12th-lowest. On the season, that number is eighth-highest.
On the ground, Detroit has been great, averaging 6.1 yards per carry with three touchdowns since their bye. The EPA per carry is 10th-highest, which is what the season-long mark is as well. For Dallas, the running game hasn’t been as prolific as the passing attack, posting the 11th-lowest EPA per carry over the last three games. On the season, that number is 17th-highest.
Both of these teams played on Thanksgiving, so there is no discrepancy in rest time.
DraftKings Sportsbook has Detroit favored by 3 points at home with the total set at 54.5 points.
Weird things tend to happen on Thursday Night Football, so expect the unexpected.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (DAL @ DET)
Captain’s Picks
Jahmyr Gibbs ($16,500 CP): The floor is low for Gibbs as he has two games with fewer than 10 FPTS this season. And David Montgomery, who is garnering close to 40% of the snaps and is going to get red zone opportunities, is no slouch. That said, the ceiling is uber high for Gibbs, as he has three games over 30 FPTS with a high of 58.4 FPTS. I want a piece of the Lions running game because it should feast against this Dallas defense. Finally, Gibbs is third on the team with 59 targets on the season and will likely be the first or second option this week with St. Brown likely out. Dallas has allowed the seventh-most receptions to running backs this season.
UTIL Plays
Dak Prescott ($10,400): This game has a whopping total of 54.5, so points are expected to be scored. Both pass defenses have been bad and, oh, Prescott has been fantastic all season long. If Dallas is going to score, points will more than likely come from the right arm of Prescott.
KaVontae Turpin ($2,400): Turpin played 36% of the snaps last week and has been in the 30 to 40 percent range for the last six games. Earlier in the season, Turpin was on the field for 60% of the snaps when CeeDee Lamb was injured. Last week, Turpin caught two targets for 28 yards but had three rushes for 33 yards. He has 12 rushing attempts on the season.
Tom Kennedy ($2,000): With St. Brown going down with an injury last week and Kalif Raymond unable to play, Kennedy saw 65% of the snaps in his first appearance of the season. Well, Raymond has already been ruled out while St. Brown is more than likely out as well. Kennedy is 5-foot-10, 197 pounds and runs a 4.6 40-yard dash. He went undrafted in the 2019 draft, but he received four targets last week and caught all of them for 36 yards. The upside may be low but he will likely be out there for most of the game and could get peppered in the short area of the field.
Fades
Jared Goff ($10,000): I could see Goff throwing for four touchdowns in this one, so it’s a scary fade, but due to salary cap limitations, one cannot play everyone, and my story is that the Lions running game feasts. Goff has only put up more than 20 FPTS four times this season.
THE OUTCOME
I’m expecting an up-and-down, barn-burning affair. Yee haaaaaw!!! Detroit should have no issues doing things on offense while Dak Prescott will keep things interesting. In the end, though, I like Detroit to assert their dominance and get back to winning ways at home.
Final Score: Cowboys 34, Lions 37
