The college football regular season has come to an end. It looks like a three-man race between Fernando Mendoza, Diego Pavia and Julian Sayin for the Heisman Trophy. This is a look at the updated Heisman odds and bets to make ahead of conference championship weekend.
Heisman Odds Update
The Heisman Trophy race has been wide open most of this season. Most of the top preseason favorites, such as Arch Manning, Cade Klubnik and Garrett Nussmeier, ended up not even being in contention for the award. After the first couple of weeks of the season, Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer was the favorite to win the award, and Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson was also a favorite at one point in the middle of the season. However, it is now a clear three-quarterback race between Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia and Ohio State’s Julian Sayin. The three players are incredibly close in their odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Who Will Be the Fourth Heisman Finalist?
Based on the odds, it looks like Jeremiyah Love will be the fourth Heisman finalist. The Notre Dame running back has been exceptional this season, ranking fourth in the nation in rushing yards and third in rushing touchdowns. He will be the first running back selected in the 2026 NFL Draft and if Notre Dame makes the College Football Playoff, he will be the best running back in the field. However, Love has no real chance to win the award given to the most outstanding player in college football. It is already an uphill battle to win the award as a running back. Last season, Ashton Jeanty led the nation in rushing by a wide margin and led his team to the College Football Playoff, but he still lost the award. Love did not put up the same numbers that Jeanty did, so while he would be a deserving finalist, he won’t win the Heisman Trophy.
The Big Ten Championship Game Implications
This weekend’s Big Ten Championship Game could play a huge role in who wins the Heisman Trophy. Fernando Mendoza’s Hoosiers and Julian Sayin’s Buckeyes are facing off with the No. 1 overall seed in the CFP and the Big Ten title on the line. The voting deadline for the Heisman Trophy is the Monday following conference championship weekend. Therefore, this game will be the last thing that voters see from the top contenders prior to casting their votes. If one of the two quarterbacks dazzles and leads his team to a win, that could push a lot of voters in that quarterback’s direction. However, if the game ends up being a defensive slugfest with neither quarterback putting up big numbers, that could push voters in the direction of the third option, Diego Pavia.
The Rise of Diego Pavia
Diego Pavia transferred to Vanderbilt prior to the 2024 season from New Mexico State. Pavia and Vanderbilt were one of the feel-good stories of 2024, with their upset over Alabama being one of the signature games of the season. However, the team ultimately finished 6-6 and was more of a feel-good story. But this season’s Vanderbilt team has been on another level. Pavia has taken his game up a notch, and so has the rest of his team. Despite going 10-2, it looks like Vanderbilt will just miss out on the College Football Playoff. Despite Vanderbilt not getting into the College Football Playoff field, Diego Pavia has surged up the Heisman odds board in recent weeks. As of Wednesday morning, he has surpassed Julian Sayin and now has the second-best odds to win the award.
2025 Heisman Trophy Best Bet
This three-man race is fascinating heading into this weekend. Two of the quarterbacks are facing each other for a conference title, while the third quarterback in the race will not be playing this weekend. Julian Sayin and Fernando Mendoza both have a great chance to show why they are worthy, while Pavia just has to wait and see. Pavia will surely be out there campaigning to win the award, however. The lack of having to prepare for a conference title game or CFP game could actually give Pavia a leg up when it comes to making the round to campaign for himself.
All three quarterbacks have different things going for them in this race. Julian Sayin has the most passing yards, Fernando Mendoza has the most passing touchdowns and Diego Pavia has by far the best rushing numbers. Sayin is the only one of the group who is a first-year starter, and he still had such a special season. However, Sayin also has the most talent around him, with the best wide receiver group in the country to throw to. Mendoza has taken a program like Indiana to the Big Ten Championship Game and will get a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff, a stunning achievement. Pavia has similarly taken a former basement-dweller in the SEC and turned them into a 10-win team.
A great argument can be made for any of the three quarterbacks to win the Heisman Trophy. However, my best bet would be on Diego Pavia to win the award. Based on the odds, Fernando Mendoza has a bit of an edge over Julian Sayin. However, Sayin’s Buckeyes are the favorite to win in Indianapolis this weekend. If that is the case, that could level out the field between Sayin and Mendoza. It will be tough for Mendoza to put up big numbers against the incredible Ohio State defense. Despite not taking the field, that could allow Diego Pavia to overtake Mendoza in the Heisman race.
Pavia ranks third in the nation in total touchdowns and second in total yards. His added rushing ability is the reason he has accounted for more total yards than Sayin or Mendoza. It also helps him have a great highlight reel with some amazing athletic plays. Pavia has a larger-than-life personality as well, similar to past winners like Baker Mayfield and Johnny Manziel. His ability to spend the weekend campaigning for the Heisman, while the other two have to play a football game, could actually work to his advantage. The Big Ten voter base could be split between its two quarterbacks, while the SEC contingent will be all-in on Pavia. Pavia has been phenomenal all season, and what he did at Vanderbilt the last two seasons transformed the entire program. That makes him a worthy winner and the best bet to make ahead of conference championship weekend.
