24 hours after the Broncos used overtime on Sunday Night Football to secure their 10th win of the season, the Patriots will look to re-gain their half-game lead in the race for the AFC’s one-seed. On paper, it doesn’t look like it’ll be all that difficult a mission to accomplish, as the team will welcome the lowly Giants to Foxborough to close out Week 13.
Will the return of Jaxson Dart help lead New York to an upset? Let’s break down tonight’s action on the gridiron and explore some options for a same game parlay on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Giants vs. Patriots Same Game Parlay
- Patriots Over 23.5 Points
- TreVeyon Henderson 70+ Rushing Yards
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. Over 18.5 Receiving Yards
Patriots Over 23.5 Points
New England doesn’t immediately come to mind as one of the league’s most explosive offensive units, yet it currently ranks seventh in the NFL in points per game (26.5). The Patriots have also been incredibly consistent in putting crooked numbers on the board, having registered at least 24 points in seven straight contests heading into Week 13. Let’s just say that I don’t think the Giants are the defense that’s going to stop this streak. On top of ranking 29th in the league in defensive EPA per play (0.11), New York is one of only four teams currently surrendering over 6.0 yards per opponent play. Specific to the Giants’ past three games, they’ve conceded an incredibly underwhelming 6.6 yards per play. MVP candidate Drake Maye should have little issue moving the ball up and down the field, and New England should soar over this total as a result.
TreVeyon Henderson 70+ Rushing Yards
Even with Rhamondre Stevenson returning to action last week, TreVeyon Henderson remained the Patriots’ “bell cow” running back, logging a 64.8% snap share and seeing 18 carries to Stevenson’s six. It certainly helped that Henderson soundly outperformed his teammate, too, with the rookie racking up 81 total scrimmage yards and Stevenson only averaging 0.8 yards per carry. As they say, you can’t put the toothpaste back into the tube. It’s likely that Henderson should have been New England’s No. 1 running back all along, yet Stevenson’s recent injury absence has created a Wally Pipp situation on the team’s depth chart that won’t soon be reversed. Henderson’s seen at least a 60% snap share in his past four games, a span where he’s produced 82.5 rushing yards per contest. I’d expect a similar statistical showing on Monday Night Football, especially considering that the Giants rank dead-last by a jaw-dropping margin in defensive EPA per rushing attempt (0.20). This is a front seven that simply gets gashed.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. Over 18.5 Receiving Yards
There’s a couple things to think about when it comes to this leg of the parlay. First and foremost, the Giants are heavy road underdogs in this spot, and the likelihood is that they’ll be playing from behind and leaning on their passing game in the second half. Aside from the script, New England has had some serious issues defending running backs as pass catchers so far this season. In fact, no AFC team is conceding more targets (6.6) and receptions (5.4) per game to opposing RBs than the Patriots. Tyrone Tracy appears to be the guy in New York with Cam Skattebo injured, and the sophomore out-snapped Devin Singletary 58-to-25 in last Sunday’s OT loss to the Lions. Tracy also turned four targets on 28 routes into 68 receiving yards in Week 12. By comparison, Singletary ran only four routes and did not receive a target.
