One team is fighting for the top seed in the AFC, while the other is positioning itself for the first overall pick in 2026. That’s really all you need to know from a macro level when it comes to tonight’s Monday Night Football tilt between the Patriots and the Giants.
On a micro level? It sure would be nice to know who’s going to score the first touchdown, wouldn’t it? That’s what I’m trying to accomplish here. Let’s break down the odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook and make a couple picks for this primetime showdown at Foxborough.
Giants vs. Patriots First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Hunter Henry First Touchdown Scorer (+1100)
No team bleeds targets and touchdowns to tight ends quite like the Bengals, and Hunter Henry took advantage of this pristine matchup in Week 12. Not only did Hunter finish with seven catches for 115 yards and a touchdown, but he also racked up three targets in the red zone, cementing his role as the Patriots’ top pass-catching option near the goal line. Heck, Henry’s been one of the most featured TEs in the league inside the opponent’s 20. The veteran’s 29.5% target share in the red zone is the ninth-highest mark in the NFL and trails only Trey McBride (30.1%) at his position. Drake Maye (+1300) is obviously athletic enough to run the ball in himself — and maybe pad those MVP stats — but why bother when the big-bodied Henry can do the hard part?
Theo Johnson First Touchdown Scorer (+1500)
Here’s the thing about the Patriots: They do not allow rushing touchdowns. Like, at all. Only 15.4% of trips to the end zone against New England have come on the ground — the lowest rate of any team in the NFL. That equates out to just 0.3 opponent rushing touchdowns per game, which is also tied for the lowest mark in the league. Long story short? Expect the Giants to find pay dirt through the air, if they find it at all. Johnson has been New York’s No. 1 pass-catching weapon in the red zone all season long, racking up twice as many targets inside the 20-yard line as any other player on the roster (12). All told, Johnson’s turned that volume into a team-high five receiving touchdowns through 12 weeks of action. It’s important to note that all five of those scores have been passes from Jaxson Dart (+1500), too, despite five combined starts from Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston. Dart and Johnson have a clear connection and the latter will surely be welcoming the former back with open arms.
