The Week 13 NFL Sunday slate will conclude with a matchup between the Denver Broncos and Washington Commanders. These two teams hold very different outlooks on the year, despite both squads making a playoff appearance behind their rookie quarterbacks last year.
For Denver, they have ripped off eight consecutive wins to climb to the top spot in the AFC West with a 9-2 record overall. Washington has not been as lucky, with the injuries to Jayden Daniels limiting their season outlook. The Commanders have dropped to 3-8 on the year and will lean on Marcus Mariota under center again tonight.
Looking at the odds of this matchup, the Broncos enter as 6-point favorites, and hold -290 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Commanders hold +235 odds of winning outright, and the game total is set at O/U 43.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 13 Sunday Night Football matchup.
Broncos at Commanders Best Prop Bets
Courtland Sutton Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Denver Broncos’ passing attack is in line for a strong day against a vulnerable Commanders defense. Washington ranks 28th in points allowed, 31st in yards given up, 29th in passing yards allowed, 27th in passing touchdowns conceded, and dead last in net yards per pass attempt entering the week.
Courtland Sutton has not exploded as a top receiver the way it was hoped coming into the season, but still leads Denver with 649 receiving yards on the season. He is averaging 59.0 receiving yards per game and has tallied over 49.5 receiving yards in seven of the 11 weeks. There is a high floor of production, with Sutton seeing at least three targets in every game this season and six or more in four of the last five.
Expect Denver to be ready to air the ball out frequently and for Sutton to be at the top of the offensive pecking order. Sutton needs some increased production if he is to match last year’s 1,081 receiving yard total, and this is the type of matchup he can produce some strong statistics. Expect the battle between the Broncos’ pass catchers and the Commanders’ secondary to be a storyline all game, and for Sutton to put his mark on the game by recording over 49.5 receiving yards for the eighth time this season. Some of the alternate lines, such as 70+ receiving yards at +211 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, also could be worth a swing.
Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt Under 25.5 Rushing Yards (-116)
There was plenty of hype coming into the season surrounding seventh-round rookie Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt. He showed some impressive early flashes and has totaled 498 rushing yards and four touchdowns this year. But Washington has leaned on him at a lesser rate as the season progressed, with Chris Rodriguez emerging as a key part of the offense. After averaging just 4.5 rush attempts per game over his first six matchups, Rodriguez has seen 11.0 attempts in the three games since.
In addition, Denver has an excellent defense that excels at stopping. The Broncos rank third in points and total yards allowed this season, first in net yards per rush attempt, and third in rushing yards allowed. They are allowing just 76 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs so far this season.
Croskey-Merritt flashed his big-play ability in the early parts of this season, but has not tallied more than four yards per carry in any of the previous six games. Between his workload decreasing, and a stiff defensive matchup, this has the makings of a tough game for the rookie. Denver is also the better overall team and playing from behind will force a more pass-oriented attack from Washington. Expect Crosky-Merritt to be held to under 25.5 rushing yards in this tough matchup and for Denver’s defense to impose itself at the line of scrimmage throughout.
Troy Franklin Anytime Touchdown (+150)
While Sutton leads the Broncos in receiving yards, it is Troy Franklin who leads the team in targets, receptions, and touchdowns. This is especially evident in key down and scoring play opportunities. Franklin has been targeted 14 times in the red zone this season, which leads the Broncos and is tied for ninth in the NFL. He has pulled in 11 of these 14 targets for 77 yards and four scores this season.
There is a chemistry between Bo Nix and Troy Franklin, dating back to their time at Oregon together, where Franklin led the PAC-12 with 14 receiving scores in 2023. This has been especially evident of late, with four of Franklin’s five touchdowns coming across the past five weeks. He is averaging a team-high 9.0 targets per game across this stretch.
Look for him to build off this strong stretch against the vulnerable Commanders’ defense and record a score again this week. The Lions tallied three passing touchdowns, and the Seahawks three for four against Washington in their past three games alone. Expect Franklin to continue to be at the top of the red zone pecking order and reach pay dirt again this week.
